Showers in the Caribbean & Low Wind Shear

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HURAKAN
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Showers in the Caribbean & Low Wind Shear

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 27, 2004 2:42 pm

Showers have started to pop up in the Caribbean, NOGAPS is forecasting a tropical cyclone to develop in the area by late this week. The Wind Shear, as you can see below, is low and will continue to decrease in the next 24 hours at least in the SW Caribbean. Sad to say, all the ingredients are there for TD #14 to develop, and maybe Matthew. We shall see!

Wind Shear
Image

Shear Tendency
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004092712
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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:13 pm

At least it isn't organized at the moment. I'm not liking the track they think it will take...
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#3 Postby MBismyPlayground » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:14 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:At least it isn't organized at the moment. I'm not liking the track they think it will take...


Link???
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#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:16 pm

I mean the one Hurakan provided. The NOGAPS brings it up to the Northwest Caribean in 6 days...
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Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:19 pm

I dont think it will turn into anything.
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#6 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:21 pm

Scorpion wrote:I dont think it will turn into anything.


why.....shear is low and climtologically it would have a decent chance. what are your reasons it shouldnt develop?
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#7 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 27, 2004 3:26 pm

Crap :eek: Could this season set the all time record for Florida hurricanes?
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#8 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:59 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I dont think it will turn into anything.


why.....shear is low and climtologically it would have a decent chance. what are your reasons it shouldnt develop?

Its called denial.
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Scorpion

#9 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:07 pm

Maybe it will hit Mexico or something with all the ridging.
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