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272033 ***
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LISA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 27 2004
...LISA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LISA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1055
MILES...1700 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.5 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
** WTNT23 KNHC 272032 ***
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132004
2100Z MON SEP 27 2004
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 46.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 46.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 46.4W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.0N 47.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.5N 48.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.0N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 35.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 46.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHEARED SYSTEM...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS SHEAR TO RELAX
SOON...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF LISA IS FORECAST TO BREAK UP AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
CURRENT NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT GFDL RUN SHOWS MORE
STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A POSITIVE BIAS
FOR THIS STORM THUS FAR.
LATEST FIXES SHOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TO THE NNW...340/7. LISA
IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. TRACK GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS MORE OF A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES. WE HAVE NOT ENTIRELY BOUGHT INTO THIS
CHANGE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST...TO BE AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECASTER PASCH/SISKO
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 21.5N 46.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 47.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 47.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 25.5N 48.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 30.5N 49.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 33.0N 49.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 35.0N 48.0W 60 KT
For some members who may be worried about Lisa turning west this latest forecast track moves her northward and excelerating into the north atlantic.Only a threat to shipping lanes and now hurricane status for Lisa is not in the cards.
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