5N. 30W. Is this growing

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webke
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5N. 30W. Is this growing

#1 Postby webke » Wed Sep 29, 2004 11:54 am

Can anyone tell if this is growing or has the potential to grow.
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#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:13 pm

Im not so sure. It seems to be associated with an upper level low more then anything. While its not unheard of to have a tropical system develop this far out at this time of year, odds are against it anyways.

<RICKY>
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#3 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:14 pm

It'll be a fish either way.
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#4 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:16 pm

Yep, won't go past 50W
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#5 Postby alicia-w » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:32 pm

dont start that again. when people ask questions, they're trying to learn so it might be helpful to qualify your statements a bit. tell them WHY you think it's gonna be a fish or why it wont get past a certain point. please dont assume they already know.
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#6 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:41 pm

I haven't looked at WV or visible yet. Is the convection area down at 5N-31W a better low-track potential center? Or is your 15N fix the center?
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your right

#7 Postby webke » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:48 pm

The system is at 5n.
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#8 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 29, 2004 12:57 pm

That was my first impression from the IR still. I don't run the loop out there because it is broken into 6 hour increments.


If this is the storm center we could see the possibility of a low-tracker into the Caribbean. This 5 degree perch is perfectly set-up to offset the Lisa-like up-pull happening in the mid-Atlantic now (Karl too).


If it forms, the TUTT will probably clear out by then and it could end up a dangerous low-tracker through the Caribbean. These sometimes tend to hit Yucatan at this time of year. - But the first thought is way too early and let's see if there's anything to it first...
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Thanks

#9 Postby webke » Wed Sep 29, 2004 1:17 pm

Thank you for the information.
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#10 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:10 pm

That is just a flare up of convection that is being caused by the deep trough in the area, so I would expect no development. And the cape verde season has pretty much come to a close. Most will be a fish if anything forms at all out there.
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