Flareup of wave east of the windward islands

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cycloneye
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Flareup of wave east of the windward islands

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2004 6:45 am

Image

Interesting flareup of the wave with maybe a very weak turning of the low clouds but when you look at the water vapor image below there is dry air around it so it has to overcome that but regardless of development or not for sure rain is in the cards for the islands on friday.

Image
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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:48 am

What about the TUTT Cycloneye? And if you dont mind could you give us a brief explanation of the TUTT, what it is, what it causes etc...
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#3 Postby Ed25 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:56 am

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin ... .cgi?vis-e
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#4 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:03 am

Yea Mr Tutt Looks like a rain maker
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2004 8:41 am

chadtm80 wrote:What about the TUTT Cycloneye? And if you dont mind could you give us a brief explanation of the TUTT, what it is, what it causes etc...


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 970#710970

Chad go to my thread about TUTT. :)
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#6 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 30, 2004 9:22 am

Problem with the tutt is it tickles the tropical wave then if it drops to the SW it then will ventilate a system. Presto late season develpment.
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 30, 2004 9:24 am

Looks like this will become something of interest within a couple of days ...

It's under some moderate shear, particularly on its north side right now, and shear in that area is forecast to increase a bit. So I don't think it has much chance to develop until it gets into the Caribbean.

There is quite high shear in the Caribbean right now due to the upper low, but that's backing westerly so in a few days the upper air conditions should be much better for development.
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#8 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Sep 30, 2004 9:53 am

Joe B agrees with development down the road with this flare-up
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#9 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 9:55 am

Maybe the flare up will develop and we'll have more to track
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#10 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:07 am

Thanks for pointing that out. But do you think that the wave to the west of this(associated with an upper low) will eventually cause shear that could hinder development somewhat?

<RICKY>
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#11 Postby HurricaneGirl » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:15 am

:eek:
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#12 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:31 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Thanks for pointing that out. But do you think that the wave to the west of this(associated with an upper low) will eventually cause shear that could hinder development somewhat?

<RICKY>


The upper low in the Caribbean is situated in the vicinity of Haiti now and is moving west at a good clip. I expect that motion to continue, which should reduce the shear in the central and western Caribbean to very little by the time this energy gets there.

The other inhibiting feature is the upper low centered southeast of Lisa at around 25N 53W or so. This has benn moving southward, but I don't think it'll go much further - probably sit where it is for a couple of days, allowing the wave in question to get ahead of it into the Caribbean.

If we're going to get any development out of this I'd expect it in the central to western Caribbean in three to five days.
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:37 am

What is Joe B saying? Can somebody post what he said?
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#14 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:39 am

Low latitude like Charley and Ivan. :eek:
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#15 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:44 am

When I saw that little wave last night I said to myself "this is the one that will probably form". I tend to notice patterns others don't. For instance, during the TUTT regime of June and July several waves formed right in this pocket and made a run at forming. Now that the TUTT has settled back in, they are doing it again. This makes sense since it is still extended into the warm tropical Atlantic where the environment is more favorable.

Also, the wave that has formed on the east side of the Caribbean TUTT isn't too bad either. I think we have some season here that isn't quitting...
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#16 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:53 am

Could give me another chance to improve my forecast abilities if it develops
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:16 pm

The wave has continued to increase in it's convection but upper conditions are not the ideal ones at the moment.
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:48 pm

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS
WAVE HAS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOVE IT.  A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
48W-55W.   



Discussion of 2 PM.
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#19 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:58 pm

If shape alone were the measure this one is starting to look awfully good. It should start spinning soon. At this time of the year the Caribbean should be conducive...
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#20 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 30, 2004 1:08 pm

The round shape of this wave is what I call "pre-formational curvature".

Should start tripping alarms soon...
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