Texas AFDs...TW over BOC to Move N Next Week

[KatDaddy]

Houston-Galveston AFD Excerpt:

LATEST GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF ON
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD COMBINE WITH REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS TO INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WATERS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...SO COULD
SEE HIGHER TIDES OR EVEN SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE MID TO LATE
PART OF THE WEEK.

Brownsville AFD:

MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROPICAL WAVE AND AN 5H
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB SEA WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER
FOR THE MARINE AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MARINE
SITUATION WILL ALSO BE COMPLICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHWARD
MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN ALONG THE TX
COASTLINE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIB SEA SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WITH A FAIRLY
BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MID WEEK OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE MARINE CONV OFFSHORE AND
OVER THE BAY AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
PUSHES NORTHWARDS. AS THE SURFACE LOW TIGHTENS THE PGF OVER THE SW
GULF OF MEX AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LARGER SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO
MIGRATE TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCA CONDITIONS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

Corpus Christi AFD Excerpt:

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SUN. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW STRONG THE WAVE BECOMES IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEN UKMET AND
CANADIAN...AND THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST. AT ANY RATE...THE WAVE SHOULD
PRODUCE A NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE EAST AND OVER THE WATERS
BEGINNING LATE MON AND CONTINUING THRU THE WEEK. THE NE FLOW WILL
WILL STRENGTHEN TUE BETWEEN THE WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH DROPPING INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. COLD
FRONT (DRY AIR) MAY TRY AND BACKDOOR INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
TUESDAY MORNING. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND/OR COASTAL FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM HERE TUE THRU THU WITH PROLONGED AND INCREASING
(SCEC) EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF AND HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FORECAST BEYOND THU AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS TROF MOVING INTO THE PLAINS MAY PULL WAVE AND
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THX HGX/EWX FOR COORD.