GOM Hybrid System to Form?

[KatDaddy]

The Texas AFDs and Special Weather Statements are mentioning this possibilty.

We really could use rain in TX and finally seeing some heavy rains across portions of SE TX this morning.

TX Special Weather Stmts:

Brownsville

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST OUTLOOKS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM.

Houston-Galveston:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF BOTH A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS THIS FAR
OUT...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

Corpus Christi:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND TIDAL OVERFLOW ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THESE TWO
SYSTEMS MERGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
WEDNESDAY TROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


Houston-Galveston AFD:

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF BY MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE STILL
FCST TO LINGER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THRU EARLY PART OF WEEK. LOTS
OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO HANG AROUND DOWN THERE. AS SFC HIGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST AND NEXT MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. GFS AND THE CANADIAN
MODEL ARE ALSO HINTING AT ONE OF OUR FAMOUS HYBRID TYPE SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING OUT THERE. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL BUT ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER...THINK ITS A SAFE BET POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WED-FRI. 47

Corpus Christi AFD:

A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TIDE LEVELS ALONG TEXAS
BEACHES. PREDICTED TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR
THEREFORE LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
EXAMINING THE PREDICATED ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES FOR PORT ARANSAS IN
MORE DETAIL SHOWS THEY WILL REACH THEIR MAXIMUM OF 1.6 FEET MSL
SAT-WED TAPERING OFF TO A MINIMUM OF 0.9 FEET MSL NEXT MONDAY. ADD
METEOROLOGY TO THE MIX AND COASTAL FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY.

[Yankeegirl]

I just noticed that... Did you see that Special weather Stateement about the radar? Ill post it... It really makes no sence to me... I guess their rain gauges are broke?

*The rain is knocking at my door!! yeah!!*

...NOTICE TO USERS OF RADAR DATA FROM NWS HOUSTON...

ANALYSIS OF OUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES WITH RAINGAGES SUGGEST THE RADAR
IS OVERESTIMATING BY AS MUCH AS A FACTOR OF TWO. PEOPLE ACCESSING
THE RADAR RAINFALL DATA EITHER THROUGH WEB SITES OR THE MEDIA ARE
ADVISED TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. THE REFLECTIVITY VALUES SHOWN WILL
ALSO BE A BIT HIGH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR OFF AS RAINFALL. CALIBRATION
CHECK WILL REQUIRE TAKING THE RADAR DOWN SO WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL
AFTER THE RAIN EVENT.

[Rainband]

According to this, not likely

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=48668

[fci]

After the events of this season; everyone, including NWS offices; are so nervous that they will jump the gun real quickly.

[Canebo]

I just noticed that... Did you see that Special weather Stateement about the radar? Ill post it... It really makes no sence to me... I guess their rain gauges are broke?

*The rain is knocking at my door!! yeah!!*

Don't soak up all of the rain. We reallllly need it down south. I keep watching the radar and it looks like it is breaking up some. I have doubts that it will make it to the coast in one piece. Undoubtedly, the one clear spot will be where it passes over my house.

[DJJordan]

I don't think a TC will be forming but I do think a possible heavy rainfall event is in store for SE Texas. Hopefully this does pan out because we are way too dry. Ever since June's rainfall records...we have been very dry.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Waiting for the rain.........
grass is freshly cut........waiting, waiting.

[greeng13]

Waiting for the rain.........
grass is freshly cut........waiting, waiting.

c'mon mother of nature give some rain to those in SE texas...we don't need it here in the southeast right now!!!

[Yankeegirl]

Well the rain here is over... Looks like it looked worse than what we got... We just got a steady drizzle for a little while... Nothing to write home about... I think it did break up right when it hit the Houston area... What a bummer.... !

[Canebo]

Waiting for the rain.........
grass is freshly cut........waiting, waiting.

I know the feeling! Grass is cut, car is washed, windows are down, rain dance performed, picnic planned.......all of that plotting and I still can't get it to rain. Maybe I will get one of those kites with the metal key that dangles from it. Nah, that only works for lightning.
I think that guy who was going to dump that absorbing material in the hurricane dumped it here instead after the rent-a-737 thing didn't work out.
What kind of grass do they grow in Arizona? Maybe I can trade it for my St. Augistine and quit spending so much time watering the yard.

[JenyEliza]

Waiting for the rain.........
grass is freshly cut........waiting, waiting.

I know the feeling! Grass is cut, car is washed, windows are down, rain dance performed, picnic planned.......all of that plotting and I still can't get it to rain. Maybe I will get one of those kites with the metal key that dangles from it. Nah, that only works for lightning.
I think that guy who was going to dump that absorbing material in the hurricane dumped it here instead after the rent-a-737 thing didn't work out.
What kind of grass do they grow in Arizona? Maybe I can trade it for my St. Augistine and quit spending so much time watering the yard.

Careful what you ask for. You just might get it!

Spoke to my mom in FL today. The last few summers she's been doing the "rain dance" in vain hopes of a bit of rain.

The last month alone, they've had 40 inches of rain in her area. Yesterday my parents hired pumper trucks to pump out their yard before the water took over the house.

They pumped 110,000 (NOT a typo) gallons out of their yard from 10 am to 12 MN yesterday at a cost of $285.00/hour...and they still have 2 feet of water still standing in their backyard. The immediate threat to the house has been addressed (for now). Just hoping for NO MORE RAIN in Cent. FL.

Mom said this morning she'd be careful what she asked for from now on...and she also said she'll be doing NO MORE "RAIN DANCES" in the future!

Jeny

[greeng13]

man...it almost seems like some of you guys in florida might want to dig a moat around your house!!! i din't realize the flooding was still that bad (i.e. i thought it had subsided)...i guess i was wrong...hang in there fla!!!!

[Canebo]

Waiting for the rain.........
grass is freshly cut........waiting, waiting.

I know the feeling! Grass is cut, car is washed, windows are down, rain dance performed, picnic planned.......all of that plotting and I still can't get it to rain. Maybe I will get one of those kites with the metal key that dangles from it. Nah, that only works for lightning.
I think that guy who was going to dump that absorbing material in the hurricane dumped it here instead after the rent-a-737 thing didn't work out.
What kind of grass do they grow in Arizona? Maybe I can trade it for my St. Augistine and quit spending so much time watering the yard.

Careful what you ask for. You just might get it!

Spoke to my mom in FL today. The last few summers she's been doing the "rain dance" in vain hopes of a bit of rain.

The last month alone, they've had 40 inches of rain in her area. Yesterday my parents hired pumper trucks to pump out their yard before the water took over the house.

They pumped 110,000 (NOT a typo) gallons out of their yard from 10 am to 12 MN yesterday at a cost of $285.00/hour...and they still have 2 feet of water still standing in their backyard. The immediate threat to the house has been addressed (for now). Just hoping for NO MORE RAIN in Cent. FL.

Mom said this morning she'd be careful what she asked for from now on...and she also said she'll be doing NO MORE "RAIN DANCES" in the future!

Jeny

Wow Jeny, that is a lot of water!! I hope your mom drys out for a while. Everyone in Fl. has had more than their share of rain. I don't think I can dance well enough to get that much rain, but at a minimum, I will cut out the rain "break "dance. Getting a bit old for that one anyway. Hopefully that will keep the rain below flood levels if it ever gets here.

It has been so dry here for so long, I can't even fathom 1" of rain, much less 40". I had 7" of rain in June and only 1.5" since. Every storm that heads this way parts like the Red Sea just before it arrrives. Then to add insult to injury, it usually reforms once it has gone by me. I then spend the next few hours cursing the weathermen for calling for a 50% chance of rain. You would think they could detect the invisible rain barrier around my house and reflect that in their forecast. Probably the time they do not forecast any rain will be the time I get 10".
A nice quiet TD that dumps about 6" of rain over a 2 day period would be just what the doctor ordered.

[southerngale]

Kat...don't forget about the Lake Charles NWS which includes portions of Southeast Texas, including Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
228 PM CDT SAT OCT 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL LA INTO SOUTHEAST
TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ON TO THE SOUTH. LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING HAS LEFT QUITE A BIT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS
DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN SO HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN OVERNIGHT.

WILL CALL FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...
COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL MAINLY PUSH EASTWARD. PRETTY QUIET
WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO
GET INTERESTING AFTER THAT TIMEFRAME. AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CURRENTLY OUT IN THE CARIBBEAN PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY AND THEN JUST
SIT FOR A FEW DAYS. GFS THEN SHOWS SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD AND INTO
LA OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND THEN SEE HOW THIS ALL WORKS OUT. DOES LOOK LIKE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPING MID-WEEK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
PRODUCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

[JenyEliza]

Waiting for the rain.........
grass is freshly cut........waiting, waiting.

I know the feeling! Grass is cut, car is washed, windows are down, rain dance performed, picnic planned.......all of that plotting and I still can't get it to rain. Maybe I will get one of those kites with the metal key that dangles from it. Nah, that only works for lightning.
I think that guy who was going to dump that absorbing material in the hurricane dumped it here instead after the rent-a-737 thing didn't work out.
What kind of grass do they grow in Arizona? Maybe I can trade it for my St. Augistine and quit spending so much time watering the yard.

Careful what you ask for. You just might get it!

Spoke to my mom in FL today. The last few summers she's been doing the "rain dance" in vain hopes of a bit of rain.

The last month alone, they've had 40 inches of rain in her area. Yesterday my parents hired pumper trucks to pump out their yard before the water took over the house.

They pumped 110,000 (NOT a typo) gallons out of their yard from 10 am to 12 MN yesterday at a cost of $285.00/hour...and they still have 2 feet of water still standing in their backyard. The immediate threat to the house has been addressed (for now). Just hoping for NO MORE RAIN in Cent. FL.

Mom said this morning she'd be careful what she asked for from now on...and she also said she'll be doing NO MORE "RAIN DANCES" in the future!

Jeny

Wow Jeny, that is a lot of water!! I hope your mom drys out for a while. Everyone in Fl. has had more than their share of rain. I don't think I can dance well enough to get that much rain, but at a minimum, I will cut out the rain "break "dance. Getting a bit old for that one anyway. Hopefully that will keep the rain below flood levels if it ever gets here.

It has been so dry here for so long, I can't even fathom 1" of rain, much less 40". I had 7" of rain in June and only 1.5" since. Every storm that heads this way parts like the Red Sea just before it arrrives. Then to add insult to injury, it usually reforms once it has gone by me. I then spend the next few hours cursing the weathermen for calling for a 50% chance of rain. You would think they could detect the invisible rain barrier around my house and reflect that in their forecast. Probably the time they do not forecast any rain will be the time I get 10".
A nice quiet TD that dumps about 6" of rain over a 2 day period would be just what the doctor ordered.

Canebo,

I'm with ya...and I totally understand your frustration. My family is spread to the 4 winds....I have a sister in your neck of the woods. She and her husband built a house out there this time last year, and they are spending a fortunte on irrigation to keep their St. Augustine from dying.

So, while sis does the rain dance....mom tries to send it over to my sister's way, and I pray for no more rain too (Atlanta got nearly a foot out of these canes).

Seems, just like with our figures, we're never happy with our weather conditions, huh? Too wet, too rainy, too fat, too skinny!! We're never happy.

Jeny

PS. I think it was VERY wise to leave off the "rain break dance". Pretty sure that was the one that summoned up 40 inches in 50 days for my parents in FL.