The Bay of Campeche should be rather favorable for development the next few days. However, the north gulf may not be.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
My worst fear for this system (WORST CASE) would be it developing in the BOC, and not moving fast, over those 87 degree waters (WITH WARMER POCKETS) becoming a major hurricane, and then rapidly being pulled north. Now, (EXAMPLE) I am sure if it was 140 mph in the BOC, it would be more like 120 mph at the coast, however, that is not good. Any thinking on the shear?
Shear and the system...
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Re: Shear and the system...
Exactly right! How about it stay a Tropical Storm and weaken thats the best case. I am looking at the system now it has become one elongated line of Thunderstorms. Needs to be watched very closely.
I think it will form somewhere!
I think it will form somewhere!
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