The September 2004 data for Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC was as follows:
City: Mean Temperature/Precipitation:
Boston: 65.2°/3.96"
New York City: 69.3°/11.51"
Washington, DC: 71.6°/3.99"
Highlights:
• Boston: 40th warmest September on record (records go back to 1872)
• New York City: 3rd wettest September on record (records go back to 1869)
The closest match to September 2004 was September 1944:
Boston:
1944: 65.0°/5.36"
2004" 65.2°/3.96"
New York City:
1944: 70.1°/10.30"
2004: 69.3°/11.51"
Washington, DC:
1944: 70.6°/4.97"
2004: 71.6°/3.99"
Although not a prospective analog itself, Winter 1944-45 does match a number of prospective analogs under review.
Winter 1944-45 featured a colder than normal winter from the Mid-Atlantic to Northeastern region. Such a situation is showing up in a number of analogs derived from ENSO regional anomalies, QBO, etc.
Moreover, Winter 1944-45 saw 59.2" snowfall in Boston. A 50"-60" winter for Boston with potential for more has shown up in a fairly large number of prospective analogs and also some of the regional data compared to past years.
Overall, the outcome of September 2004 has lent support to the analogs that point to a cooler than normal winter in the East and warmer than normal in the West.
Sept. Data Lends Support for Cool Winter in East
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Nikolai,
Several points:
1) While I sort through prospective analogs, I'm more confident of a Cold East/Warm West scenario than I am about snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. I am quite confident about Boston's snowfall outlook given a wide range of data that supports a 50"-60" or possibly greater outcome there.
2) For me, 1944-45 is not a prospective analog; I only used it to highlight the Cold East/Warm West idea which has strong support among prospective analogs. The picture for Mid-Atlantic snowfall is still not anywhere near as firm as that for Boston much less the temperature ideas. Additional September data, especially that concerning ENSO regional anomalies, could prove revealing.
3) With respect to Washington, DC, some prospective analogs are quite snowy. Others are not. In addition, some showed a very sharp cutoff between low snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic to high/very high snowfall in central New England northward. I don't yet have enough information to determine which scenario will prevail.
On a disconcerting note, Keith Allen, who has a strong track record in forecasting DCA's winters, has called for just 14.0" in DCA for Winter 2004-05. One of the stronger prospective analogs under consideration (1969-70, which was not KA's primary analog) had just 14.0" of snow there.
KA has also called for a warmer than normal winter in the DCA area. However, on that point, I respectfully disagree and expect a cooler than normal winter.
His judgment was based, in part, on the climatological idea that it is very difficult for DCA to experience 3 consecutive winters with below normal temperatures (2002-03 and 2003-04 had below normal temperatures).
My research finds that such streaks are not very rare and have occured about once very decade from the 1960s onward. Briefly, the normal December-February temperature in Washington, DC (DCA) is 37.5° (December: 39.5°; January: 34.9°; February: 38.1°).
Since 1960, the following occasions have witnessed three or more consecutive winters with a mean temperature below 37.5°:
• Winter 1960-61 through 1965-66: 6 consecutive
• Winter 1967-68 through 1970-71: 4 consecutive
• Winter 1976-77 through 1978-79: 3 consecutive
• Winter 1985-86 through 1987-88: 3 consecutive
There were no such streaks during the 1990s. Given this recent historical experience, I would argue that the 1990s were an aberration and that the 2000s are very likely to see at least one such streak.
Several points:
1) While I sort through prospective analogs, I'm more confident of a Cold East/Warm West scenario than I am about snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic region. I am quite confident about Boston's snowfall outlook given a wide range of data that supports a 50"-60" or possibly greater outcome there.
2) For me, 1944-45 is not a prospective analog; I only used it to highlight the Cold East/Warm West idea which has strong support among prospective analogs. The picture for Mid-Atlantic snowfall is still not anywhere near as firm as that for Boston much less the temperature ideas. Additional September data, especially that concerning ENSO regional anomalies, could prove revealing.
3) With respect to Washington, DC, some prospective analogs are quite snowy. Others are not. In addition, some showed a very sharp cutoff between low snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic to high/very high snowfall in central New England northward. I don't yet have enough information to determine which scenario will prevail.
On a disconcerting note, Keith Allen, who has a strong track record in forecasting DCA's winters, has called for just 14.0" in DCA for Winter 2004-05. One of the stronger prospective analogs under consideration (1969-70, which was not KA's primary analog) had just 14.0" of snow there.
KA has also called for a warmer than normal winter in the DCA area. However, on that point, I respectfully disagree and expect a cooler than normal winter.
His judgment was based, in part, on the climatological idea that it is very difficult for DCA to experience 3 consecutive winters with below normal temperatures (2002-03 and 2003-04 had below normal temperatures).
My research finds that such streaks are not very rare and have occured about once very decade from the 1960s onward. Briefly, the normal December-February temperature in Washington, DC (DCA) is 37.5° (December: 39.5°; January: 34.9°; February: 38.1°).
Since 1960, the following occasions have witnessed three or more consecutive winters with a mean temperature below 37.5°:
• Winter 1960-61 through 1965-66: 6 consecutive
• Winter 1967-68 through 1970-71: 4 consecutive
• Winter 1976-77 through 1978-79: 3 consecutive
• Winter 1985-86 through 1987-88: 3 consecutive
There were no such streaks during the 1990s. Given this recent historical experience, I would argue that the 1990s were an aberration and that the 2000s are very likely to see at least one such streak.
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