1130 TWO out

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924
ABNT20 KNHC 081444
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW...IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER 500 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM
HAS ACQUIRED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS
OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COASTAL FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS. FOR INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NORTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$