805am TWD sent early, but gives light to 14L & 96L

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senorpepr
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805am TWD sent early, but gives light to 14L & 96L

#1 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 09, 2004 6:00 am

First... the 8.05a EDT TWD was sent out at 6.53a EDT. Therefore, this data may be retracted and altered later for a more timely transmition.

Anyway...

NHC on Matthew wrote:TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25.6N 92.9W...OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AT 09/0900 UTC. MATTHEW IS MOVING NE AT
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO CREATE
STRONG SHEAR OVER MATTHEW AND THE FIRST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES
COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE NOW SHOW A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE EARLIER IMPRESSIVE CDO
FEATURE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL CELLS OF
DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE EAST. A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WELL NE OF
MATTHEW OVER THE N CENTRAL GLFMEX AND GULF COAST FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
FOCUSED OVER SE LOUISIANA DURING THE NIGHT WITH NEW ACTIVITY IS
NOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGING NWD AND THE IMPROVING MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF MATTHEW LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. IN FACT...MANY
LOCAL NWS OFFICES HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM
LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS EVENT.


NHC on 96L wrote:A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
29N61W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW
IS LOCATED ALONG THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND WITHIN 500 NM EAST OF A LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SW OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...THE LOW CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A BIT BETTER
DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE ACTIVITY
FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 58W-70W. NONETHELESS...SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD TO NW AND THE UPPER LOW DROPS SEWD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER.
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