13N 30W yikes
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Hyperstorm
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- Location: Ocala, FL
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Hurricanehink
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A big hmm, in my book. Convection flaring there... I'm surprised NHC hasn't even mentioned it in the TWO, though it was in the TWD...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 32W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE E ATLC. ASSOCIATED SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. SCATTERED MODERATE ACTIVITY FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-31W.
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Hyperstorm
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
Yes it should, but...
The feature is located on the east side of an UL Anticyclone that is just about to shear it from northerly winds. However, if the system somehow manages to move underneath the UL anticyclone, development can take place. At this time, it is moving rather slowly due to weak steering currents, so I wouldn't expect it to do anything for the next 24 hours at least.
If this one was located in the Gulf, it would probably be a TD at this time...
The feature is located on the east side of an UL Anticyclone that is just about to shear it from northerly winds. However, if the system somehow manages to move underneath the UL anticyclone, development can take place. At this time, it is moving rather slowly due to weak steering currents, so I wouldn't expect it to do anything for the next 24 hours at least.
If this one was located in the Gulf, it would probably be a TD at this time...
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x-y-no
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Te ECMWF sees it, althout it doesn't develop it much. Haven't checked thew other models yet - I expect the GFS won't see it at the moment.
There is some decent ridging to the north which should keep this moving WNW for the next three or four days. After that, somewhere in th 45 to 55 W range, it should turn north and be no trouble to anyone.
I'm going to have to do some more looking to see if I think this can develop - instinct says it has a moderate chance.
EDIT:
Actually, on further review the mid-level ridging is very weak. It's mostly low-level. If this does develop in the near range it may start a more northerly motion earlier.
There is some decent ridging to the north which should keep this moving WNW for the next three or four days. After that, somewhere in th 45 to 55 W range, it should turn north and be no trouble to anyone.
I'm going to have to do some more looking to see if I think this can develop - instinct says it has a moderate chance.
EDIT:
Actually, on further review the mid-level ridging is very weak. It's mostly low-level. If this does develop in the near range it may start a more northerly motion earlier.
Last edited by x-y-no on Sun Oct 10, 2004 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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