Central Florida winter question

[lurkerinthemidst]

My son is betting that we will get flurries at least in Central FL this year.
What does everyone else think?

[tronbunny]

I doubt it...
There is only a very weak (and waning, I think) el Nino this year and the below normal temps are not predicted to swing much further south of NFLa this year.

[wxguy25]

waning El Nino, I dont think so. NINO 3.4 and 4.0 SST anomalies are still well above +0.5 C and have been since last month when the event was declared by NOAA.

01SEP2004 20.1 -.5 25.0 .1 27.4 .8 29.6 1.1
08SEP2004 19.8 -.7 25.0 .1 27.4 .7 29.6 1.2
15SEP2004 19.8 -.7 25.1 .3 27.5 .8 29.6 1.2
22SEP2004 20.4 -.2 25.3 .4 27.6 .9 29.6 1.1
29SEP2004 20.5 -.2 25.4 .5 27.5 .9 29.5 1.1
06OCT2004 20.8 .0 25.2 .4 27.4 .8 29.5 1.0
13OCT2004 20.5 -.4 25.2 .3 27.3 .7 29.4 1.0

the SOI has come up somewhat since the 1st of the month which may be the reason for the small decrease in SSTA since 10/6.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... index.html

otherwise Weak El Nino conditions are in place and will remain as such through at least the first 1/2 of the winter.

Regardless of the amount of cold air available, its hard to get falling snow in central florida let alone accumulations. however it's favored in El Nino years where the NAO is negative most of the time--like this winter should be. take 1976-77 as an example. My winter analog years didn't have any accumulating snow.

[The Big Dog]

My son is betting that we will get flurries at least in Central FL this year.
What does everyone else think?

Hmm, I dunno... what kind of odds is he getting?

[Wacahootaman]

Donno bout dem snow flurries. Jus hopes we gets some hard freezes here in Wacahoota cause de skeeters be rite bad these days.

Killing hogs and grinding cane aint no fun wen de skeeters be on ya !

[yoda]

waning El Nino, I dont think so. NINO 3.4 and 4.0 SST anomalies are still well above +0.5 C and have been since last month when the event was declared by NOAA.

01SEP2004 20.1 -.5 25.0 .1 27.4 .8 29.6 1.1
08SEP2004 19.8 -.7 25.0 .1 27.4 .7 29.6 1.2
15SEP2004 19.8 -.7 25.1 .3 27.5 .8 29.6 1.2
22SEP2004 20.4 -.2 25.3 .4 27.6 .9 29.6 1.1
29SEP2004 20.5 -.2 25.4 .5 27.5 .9 29.5 1.1
06OCT2004 20.8 .0 25.2 .4 27.4 .8 29.5 1.0
13OCT2004 20.5 -.4 25.2 .3 27.3 .7 29.4 1.0

the SOI has come up somewhat since the 1st of the month which may be the reason for the small decrease in SSTA since 10/6.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... index.html

otherwise Weak El Nino conditions are in place and will remain as such through at least the first 1/2 of the winter.

Regardless of the amount of cold air available, its hard to get falling snow in central florida let alone accumulations. however it's favored in El Nino years where the NAO is negative most of the time--like this winter should be. take 1976-77 as an example. My winter analog years didn't have any accumulating snow.

Good post. I agree. FL should see some freezes this year, but no snow. Snow is hard to come by in any part of FL.

[ColdFront77]

Pensacola to Jacksonville sees snow on occassion, sure not too often, but more often than central and south Florida.