October PDO: -0.11

[donsutherland1]

The new Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) number is now in. For the first time since July 2002, the PDO is negative. It currently stands at -0.11.

If the PDO holds < 0, which is not necessarily assured (in September 2003, the PDO dropped to +0.01 from +0.88 in August only to rebound back to +0.83 in October), the El Niño remains weak, and the QBO averages below +6 but above -6 for the winter, one winter turns up: 1963-64.

That winter was snowy from Washington, DC to Boston and out to the Plains States. Selected snowfall amounts include:

Boston: 63.0"
New York City: 44.7"
St. Louis: 31.5"
Washington, DC: 33.6"

Overall, what this means is that the idea of cold and snowy in New England and parts of the Midwest is still looking good. It also suggests, if the trend holds up, that the Mid-Atlantic could have a more promising snowfall outlook than what I thought earlier.

Finally, for Bostonians, a hint to look for if November turns up with 1" of snow or more would be if December can see 10" or more. In such years, 9/10 (90%) winters saw more than 40" of snow and 7/10 (90%) saw more than 50":

Code: Select all

1894-95   46.9
1906-07   67.9
1929-30   31.4
1933-34   62.7
1945-46   50.8
1947-48   89.2
1967-68   44.8
1976-77   58.5
1995-96   107.0
2002-03   70.9

Average: 63.0"


The average for winters seeing 1" or more in November but less than 10" in December is 39.9". Then, 14/27 (51.9%) winters saw 40" or more and 6/27 (22.2%) saw 50" or more.

I continue to have strong confidence that Boston will see a snowy winter with more than 50" this season.

[wxguy25]

The new Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) number is now in. For the first time since July 2002, the PDO is negative. It currently stands at -0.11.

If the PDO holds < 0, which is not necessarily assured (in September 2003, the PDO dropped to +0.01 from +0.88 in August only to rebound back to +0.83 in October), the El Niño remains weak, and the QBO averages below +6 but above -6 for the winter, one winter turns up: 1963-64.

That winter was snowy from Washington, DC to Boston and out to the Plains States. Selected snowfall amounts include:

Boston: 63.0"
New York City: 44.7"
St. Louis: 31.5"
Washington, DC: 33.6"

Overall, what this means is that the idea of cold and snowy in New England and parts of the Midwest is still looking good. It also suggests, if the trend holds up, that the Mid-Atlantic could have a more promising snowfall outlook than what I thought earlier.

Finally, for Bostonians, a hint to look for if November turns up with 1" of snow or more would be if December can see 10" or more. In such years, 9/10 (90%) winters saw more than 40" of snow and 7/10 (90%) saw more than 50":

Code: Select all

1894-95   46.9
1906-07   67.9
1929-30   31.4
1933-34   62.7
1945-46   50.8
1947-48   89.2
1967-68   44.8
1976-77   58.5
1995-96   107.0
2002-03   70.9

Average: 63.0"


The average for winters seeing 1" or more in November but less than 10" in December is 39.9". Then, 14/27 (51.9%) winters saw 40" or more and 6/27 (22.2%) saw 50" or more.

I continue to have strong confidence that Boston will see a snowy winter with more than 50" this season.

Don, great post. You touched on what is (IMO) a very important point. I'll elaborate more later.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Wxguy25,

I'll be very interested to read your thoughts. It will be interesting to see if the PDO remains negative or reverses later.

[yoda]

Excellent discussion. I hope that is true.