Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert at Indian Ocean

[cycloneye]

222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 222151ZNOV04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.5N9 76.8E1 TO 5.1N6 67.8E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 222100Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.4N8 76.4E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9S2
76.9E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N8 76.4E7, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232200Z9.//


Another possible cyclone at the indian ocean as powerful cyclone Bento is at that body of water too making that ocean very active at this time.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N8
76.4E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N0 75.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC CONVECTION OVER A BROAD MID TO
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 222200) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

Still a tropical cyclone may form from this disturbed area.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 222200). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N0 75.5E7, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 4.9N3 75.6E8, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO,
SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND CONTINUES TO BE CYCLIC OVER A BROAD
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//
NNNN


No development from this anymore.