Focus of Winter to Remain Ohio Valley Westward thru 12/15

[donsutherland1]

Through at least mid-December, the main threat for storms that bring accumulating snow should remain in the Ohio Valley westward. At this time, there is little indication that the ridge off the Southeast will erode appreciably and a more amplified pattern with the trough farther to the east will lock in before mid-December.

Therefore, look for storms to continue to track somewhere to the eastern Great Lakes, up the St. Lawrence River Valley, or the Appalachians for the most part during this period. This does not mean that systems cannot jump to the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. However, it does appear that the pattern remains ripe for cities such as Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit to have opportunities to add to their early-season snowfall.

With regard to the evolution of the SSTAs, it appears that a setup, which will lead to the NAO averaging < 0 and PNA > 0 during the December-March period is gradually coming into place. Such a setup should not kill the Plains'/Midwest's/Ohio Valley's overall prospects for snowfall this winter.

In fact, given the weak El Niño, many of the possible PNA-NAO combinations this winter should be favorable, especially for the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The Central Plains' prospects are somewhat more dependent on favorable PNA-NAO combinations than let's say those of Chicago.

Overall, based on an MEI that averages from 0.00 to +1.25 for the December-March period (very likely this winter), here is how Chicago and St. Louis have fared with respect to average seasonal snowfall given various PNA-NAO winter combinations:

PNA > 0; NAO < 0:
Chicago: 60.5": 3/4 winters > 50" snowfall
St. Louis: 38.5": 4/4 winters > 20" snowfall

My estimates for these two cities from Mid-October: Chicago: 40"-50"; St. Louis: 18"-28" (http://www.storm2k.org/don.html). Early season snowfall, SSTA trends, etc., still supporting these early ideas.

PNA > 0; NAO > 0:
Chicago: 32.5": 2/6 winters > 40"
St. Louis: 14.9": 2/6 winters > 20"

PNA < 0; NAO < 0:
Chicago: 43.8": 3/6 winters > 40"
St. Louis: 19.5": 3/6 winters > 20"

PNA < 0; NAO > 0:
Chicago: 47.2": 3/4 winters > 40"
St. Louis: 13.7": 0/4 winters > 40"

Overall Combinations:

Chicago:
Best: PNA+/NAO-
Good: PNA-/NAO+ and PNA-/NAO-
Bad: PNA+/NAO+

St. Louis:
Best: PNA+/NAO-
Good: PNA-/NAO-
Bad: PNA+/NAO+
Very Bad: PNA-/NAO+

[Skywatch_NC]

Don what about the Southeast?

Specifically MD, VA, TN Valley, Carolinas, GA?

Eric

[Anonymous]

I would not be very surprised if the Midwest gets pounded all winter long, right into late May 2005. One thing I've noticed about some, if not most winters in the CONUS is that the winter pattern that will prevail most of the winter season is what you see in November/December. I said SOME winters, meaning about 45% to 50% of all winter seasons.

This may be one of them. Note that I am talking about Midwest snows, NOT Mid Atlantic snows. This is NO reverse psychology either. I'm through with that, it gets me nowhere.

If the +PNA/-NAO pattern does not get established, then I believe the Midwest region will experience some of the greatest snows since records have been kept. I am referring to seasonal totals. Places like Chicago, for example, may get a tremendous amount of snow this winter due to unrelenting synoptic support. I think this last storm is an example of things to come this winter in the Chicago region. Likewise in lower Michigan. If you just moved to lower Michigan and you like snow...........to say that you may be in for a treat of a winter may turn out to be the understatement of the new century..........

Just my 0.02 cents.....

-Jeb

[Wnghs2007]

I would not be very surprised if the Midwest gets pounded all winter long, right into late May 2005. One thing I've noticed about some, if not most winters in the CONUS is that the winter pattern that will prevail most of the winter season is what you see in November/December. I said SOME winters, meaning about 45% to 50% of all winter seasons.

This may be one of them. Note that I am talking about Midwest snows, NOT Mid Atlantic snows. This is NO reverse psychology either. I'm through with that, it gets me nowhere.

If the +PNA/-NAO pattern does not get established, then I believe the Midwest region will experience some of the greatest snows since records have been kept. I am referring to seasonal totals. Places like Chicago, for example, may get a tremendous amount of snow this winter due to unrelenting synoptic support. I think this last storm is an example of things to come this winter in the Chicago region. Likewise in lower Michigan. If you just moved to lower Michigan and you like snow...........to say that you may be in for a treat of a winter may turn out to be the understatement of the new century..........

Just my 0.02 cents.....

-Jeb

Shhhhhhhhhhh....We need that pattern dude. Atleast I do. LOL

[sertorius]

Good evening donsutherland1:

I was just wondering what you thought for KC-I kind of got the gist with your Saint Louis ideas, but KC averages about 12 inches less year than St. Louis and Lawrence, Kansas (about 30 miles west of KC) averages about 5 less than KC. I believe with the current tracks of these storms, we will at least see our avg. if not more. Thanks in advance if you get a chance to reply. I love reading your analysis-I'm just a Latin/History teacher, but the weather has always fascinated me and I'm trying to learn a little bit ass I go!!!!

[donsutherland1]

Skywatch_NC,

My overall ideas have not changed. The idea described above pertains strictly from now through around December 15. I don't believe a trough with consistently below normal temperatures and threats of snow will lock into the East before then. Through around December 15, the western TN Valley has a somewhat better chance at seeing wintry threats than the remainder of the region you outlined.

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

I'm thinking that this winter will feature above normal snows from the Plains States to the East (Mid-Atlantic a little less likely but that may be different when I make my final assessment based on the November data; there are at least a few more promising hints).

[donsutherland1]

Sertorius

I believe KC will also see 20"-30" snowfall this winter (generally above its average of just under 21"). So far, the city is off to a good start.

[sertorius]

Donsutherland1:

Thanks sooo much for responding-we are indeed off to a great start-I just hope we keep this same storm track all winter!!! have a great night!!!

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

There might be at least a few days of the following around the Washington, DC area:



Source: Library of Congress (Photographer: Theodor Horydczak)

[donsutherland1]

Sertorius,

Hopefully, you will continue to enjoy the winter. Have a great rest of the weekend.

[wxguy25]

Through at least mid-December, the main threat for storms that bring accumulating snow should remain in the Ohio Valley westward. At this time, there is little indication that the ridge off the Southeast will erode appreciably and a more amplified pattern with the trough farther to the east will lock in before mid-December.

Therefore, look for storms to continue to track somewhere to the eastern Great Lakes, up the St. Lawrence River Valley, or the Appalachians for the most part during this period. This does not mean that systems cannot jump to the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England coast. However, it does appear that the pattern remains ripe for cities such as Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit to have opportunities to add to their early-season snowfall.

With regard to the evolution of the SSTAs, it appears that a setup, which will lead to the NAO averaging < 0 and PNA > 0 during the December-March period is gradually coming into place. Such a setup should not kill the Plains'/Midwest's/Ohio Valley's overall prospects for snowfall this winter.

In fact, given the weak El Niño, many of the possible PNA-NAO combinations this winter should be favorable, especially for the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The Central Plains' prospects are somewhat more dependent on favorable PNA-NAO combinations than let's say those of Chicago.

Overall, based on an MEI that averages from 0.00 to +1.25 for the December-March period (very likely this winter), here is how Chicago and St. Louis have fared with respect to average seasonal snowfall given various PNA-NAO winter combinations:

PNA > 0; NAO < 0:
Chicago: 60.5": 3/4 winters > 50" snowfall
St. Louis: 38.5": 4/4 winters > 20" snowfall

My estimates for these two cities from Mid-October: Chicago: 40"-50"; St. Louis: 18"-28" (http://www.storm2k.org/don.html). Early season snowfall, SSTA trends, etc., still supporting these early ideas.

PNA > 0; NAO > 0:
Chicago: 32.5": 2/6 winters > 40"
St. Louis: 14.9": 2/6 winters > 20"

PNA < 0; NAO < 0:
Chicago: 43.8": 3/6 winters > 40"
St. Louis: 19.5": 3/6 winters > 20"

PNA < 0; NAO > 0:
Chicago: 47.2": 3/4 winters > 40"
St. Louis: 13.7": 0/4 winters > 40"

Overall Combinations:

Chicago:
Best: PNA+/NAO-
Good: PNA-/NAO+ and PNA-/NAO-
Bad: PNA+/NAO+

St. Louis:
Best: PNA+/NAO-
Good: PNA-/NAO-
Bad: PNA+/NAO+
Very Bad: PNA-/NAO+

Excellent discussion as always! You might want to bring up those Chicago totals a notch though.

[Stormsfury]

Don what about the Southeast?

Specifically MD, VA, TN Valley, Carolinas, GA?

Eric

Don summed it up very well ... the whole pattern is changing but extremely slowly ... more like than not, like the hurricane season, there won't be any early winter (from a precipitation standpoint), probably NOT UNTIL 2005 ... IMHO, things look a LOT better in JAN/FEB ...

SF

[Wnghs2007]

Don what about the Southeast?

Specifically MD, VA, TN Valley, Carolinas, GA?

Eric

Don summed it up very well ... the whole pattern is changing but extremely slowly ... more like than not, like the hurricane season, there won't be any early winter (from a precipitation standpoint), probably NOT UNTIL 2005 ... IMHO, things look a LOT better in JAN/FEB ...

SF

Oh thats nice. LOL. I pulled my hair out waiting for it to start all the posts about this has an LLC and not were driving me crazy. And then finally this little tropical depression formed. And was supposed to make landfall as a 25 knt TD. Then all of the sudden on August 1st, It began to tell the NHC were to shove it with its first forecast and grew into the MJ Hurricane we know as Alex. And from there the season was unrelanting until October. Then nothing. Hopefully it wont be a long wait. Fast go then just off with the winter season.

[Anonymous]

Don summed it up very well ... the whole pattern is changing but extremely slowly ... more like than not, like the hurricane season, there won't be any early winter (from a precipitation standpoint), probably NOT UNTIL 2005 ... IMHO, things look a LOT better in JAN/FEB ...

SF

That will be very fine with me. The way temperatures are these days, today included, I will be enjoying some very nice jebwalks! In fact this morning, though windy (Gusts to 40 mph), I enjoyed yet another 4.6 mile jebwalk in 1 hour 24 minutes.

It's a great thing that we will enjoy Pacific air now, at a time of year when we don't get much snow anyway, but Imagine what could happen if that PNA went way POS and the NAO went way NEG with a solid Greenland Block in Jan-Feb!!!!!

The Mid Atlantic Region, indeed the ENTIRE Eastern Seaboard could be HEAD-SLAMMED with SEVERE SNOWS and FRIGID COLD and spectacular drifting that could well shut Washington DC down for WEEKS!!!!

Hey, I'll take the mild Pac Jet in December. Heck, I'll SAVOR it!! Because if that Positive PNA and Negative NAO get together with the Greenland Block come January/February 2005, then the eastern third of the US could be BURIED in deep snow and whipped by frigid gusty Siberian winds, blowing that snow all over the place!!!

So much the better for the present pattern dumping snow on the Midwest!! Hey, Pile it up!!! Set up a MASSIVE snowpack from Canada clear on down to the Appalachian Mts!!! Make it 4 feet deep! That'll only serve to roll out the red carpet for the Siberian airmasses to come sweeping down via a Cross-Polar connection!!! Then we'll get slammed here in the EUS!!

Then I'll savor a long, frigid, snowy jebwalk!!!

Hey BTW, could someone figure out for me, How fast did I walk that 4.6 mile jebwalk this morning. I completed that 4.6-mile jebwalk in 1 hour 24 minutes. How many miles per hour was I walking? Thanks!

-Jeb

[Wnghs2007]

Don summed it up very well ... the whole pattern is changing but extremely slowly ... more like than not, like the hurricane season, there won't be any early winter (from a precipitation standpoint), probably NOT UNTIL 2005 ... IMHO, things look a LOT better in JAN/FEB ...

SF

That will be very fine with me. The way temperatures are these days, today included, I will be enjoying some very nice jebwalks! In fact this morning, though windy (Gusts to 40 mph), I enjoyed yet another 4.6 mile jebwalk in 1 hour 24 minutes.

It's a great thing that we will enjoy Pacific air now, at a time of year when we don't get much snow anyway, but Imagine what could happen if that PNA went way POS and the NAO went way NEG with a solid Greenland Block in Jan-Feb!!!!!

The Mid Atlantic Region, indeed the ENTIRE Eastern Seaboard could be HEAD-SLAMMED with SEVERE SNOWS and FRIGID COLD and spectacular drifting that could well shut Washington DC down for WEEKS!!!!

Hey, I'll take the mild Pac Jet in December. Heck, I'll SAVOR it!! Because if that Positive PNA and Negative NAO get together with the Greenland Block come January/February 2005, then the eastern third of the US could be BURIED in deep snow and whipped by frigid gusty Siberian winds, blowing that snow all over the place!!!

So much the better for the present pattern dumping snow on the Midwest!! Hey, Pile it up!!! Set up a MASSIVE snowpack from Canada clear on down to the Appalachian Mts!!! Make it 4 feet deep! That'll only serve to roll out the red carpet for the Siberian airmasses to come sweeping down via a Cross-Polar connection!!! Then we'll get slammed here in the EUS!!

Then I'll savor a long, frigid, snowy jebwalk!!!

Hey BTW, could someone figure out for me, How fast did I walk that 4.6 mile jebwalk this morning. I completed that 4.6-mile jebwalk in 1 hour 24 minutes. How many miles per hour was I walking? Thanks!

-Jeb

Jeb is there a payment fund that we have to give you for this scenario...LOL. Wheres the weather machine.. ROFL

[baseballplaya08]

4.6 miles/1.4 hours = 3.29 miles an hour... not bad Jeb... bet you would like to do that in some nice DC snow though

[Anonymous]

4.6 miles/1.4 hours = 3.29 miles an hour... not bad Jeb... bet you would like to do that in some nice DC snow though

Yep, I'd really like to try that in 6 inches of snow with 35 mph winds out of the NE and ten-degree weather conditions. Thanks baseballplaya08!!


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Thanks for the snow picture, Don, I really appreciate it!!

Source: Library of Congress (Photographer: Theodor Horydczak)

I cam imagine conducting a jebwalk in that snow......looks to be 6 to 8 inches, if it were powder, my feet would throw up plumes of snow as I jebwalked along at 3.3 to near 4mph. I really LOVE a good cold snow jebwalk, particularly when it involves a stiff 35-mph NE wind during a heavy snow event with 2-inch flakes blowing wildly past the streetlights!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!!

[W13]

Any idea what the Northwestern outlook for this Winter is? Specifically Western Washington and Central Oregon? Thanks.