Tropical Depressions 02F & 03F

[HURAKAN]

FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE:

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Dec 06/2306 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1003HPA] NEAR 11S 169E AT 062100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9/VIS, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS. CLOCKWISE WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS [10 MINUTE AVERAGE] WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONVECTION AROUND 02F HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT THE EASERN AND NORTHERN FLANK. 02F LIES SOUTH OF THE UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS INDICATE STRONG SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF 13S. WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS LIKELY TO INDUCE MORE CYCLONIC VORTICITY INTO THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM BUT SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVLOPMENT WHILE MOVING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [1003HPA] NEAR 13S 180 AT 062100UTC MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9/VIS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOCKWISE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS [10 MINUTE AVERAGE] WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAJOR CONVECTION REMAINS DETACHED FROM LLCC AND REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF 03F. THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF UPPER OUTFLOW CENTRE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.

POTENTIAL FOR 03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

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Both have also been already picked by NRL as Invests 95P. & 96P. JTWC mentions TD 02F and gives a poor opportunity for this system to develop in the next 24 hours.

More information about both systems as becomes available.