Ridge to be SHORT lived

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azsnowman
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Ridge to be SHORT lived

#1 Postby azsnowman » Wed Dec 08, 2004 5:56 pm

What some were saying was going to be a LONG lived ridge, it appears it will only last 6 days then it's BACK to the pattern in which we've seen this past month and half 8-) It will be NICE to warm up for a few days, it'll gimme a chance to go cut a "back up" load of wood.......

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/flag

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 082241 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 340 PM MST WED DEC 08 2004 .SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING FROM THE MOGOLLON NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND A WARMING TREND TO AREAS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHWESTWARD. TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOL AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CHINLE VALLEY. && .DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SATURATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE SURFACE...ENHANCED BY SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT AS AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD AZ. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO BRING BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...HOLDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLE NORMS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE LCR SHOULD SEE LIMITED WARMING DUE TO VALLEY BASED INVERSION SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOUTH OF THE RIM...HAVE STUCK CLOSELY TO MOS VALUES AS DOWNSLOPING AND THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE A RAPID WARMUP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD MAX OUT SUNDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE GRADUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS NEXT WEEK. NEXT FORESEEABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE CURRENT EVENT ENDS LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT CARVING OUT A CLOSED LOW TOWARDS NEXT WEEKS END NEAR SOUTHWESTERN US. ONTON && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
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weatherlover427

#2 Postby weatherlover427 » Wed Dec 08, 2004 7:37 pm

I'm glad you see the good in this. Although we are above normal (as of now) for the year, it is not enough yet to erase the long term deficits that we still have. Plus if we dry out enough in the summer of 2005, it's all over. :cry:
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#3 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Dec 08, 2004 8:14 pm

One thing we need to watch out for is that the models are equally consistent and with total consensus that we are going to get backdoored early next week as the High slides down just east of the Rockies. The GFS puts a 1040mb center in eastern NM and has a very tight H85 thermal gradient in eastern AZ.

Steve
8-)
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#4 Postby azsnowman » Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:47 pm

MAN....it's WARM! Sitting at 62° right now.....1450 hrs MST, kinda feels GOOD, at least it's melting off the 2" of ICE in the driveway, just in time for the ridge to break down this coming Tues and another wave of systems coming in on Weds night thru Saturday morning, as soon as the AFD is updated, I'll post it!

Dennis
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rainstorm

#5 Postby rainstorm » Sun Dec 12, 2004 9:05 am

good news. yall need the precip
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#6 Postby Stephanie » Sun Dec 12, 2004 10:58 am

I hope that the ridge is just temporary Dennis! I know you'll let us know about the status down there.
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#7 Postby azsnowman » Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:20 am

Heading for a possible RECORD high today but after Tues, it's back to normal with snow in the forecast for Thursday thru Saturday morning.

Dennis
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#8 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Dec 12, 2004 4:17 pm

Well, I won't be looking at the runs until later so I can't comment just now. BTW don't let AZ get your goat, you know when he gets a burr under his saddle he tends to be cranky-heck, he's even raked me over the coals.

Steve
8-)
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#9 Postby azsnowman » Sun Dec 12, 2004 4:21 pm

LOL @ Steve! Yeah, DJ does get his drawers in a BUNCH every now and then, but don't we ALL :wink:

Hit 63° just a few minutes ago, not quite a record, 2° off the old record, 1977

Dennis
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