6z GFS says White Christmas for Texas

#1 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 10:19 am

You guys want a real hoot? Check out today's 6z run of the GFS at Days 9 and 13-14 ... if the model would verify, nearly two-thirds of the state of Texas would have a White Christmas!! No kidding.

Now wouldn't that be something! :eek:

LaBreeze · #2 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 10:22 am

How reliable is the GFS that far out? Just wondering.

#3 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 10:28 am

No matter how much I forecast a artic front or cold weather coming I would never forecast a WHITE CHRISTMAS that would be insane. :lol:

#4 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 10:32 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:No matter how much I forecast a artic front or cold weather coming I would never forecast a WHITE CHRISTMAS that would be insane.

Maybe HeatMiser and SnowMiser made a deal?! Y'all remember that animated show "Year Without A Santa Claus?"

I guess we would file such a weather event under "Signs that the Apocalypse is Near."

#5 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 10:55 am

Portastorm wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:No matter how much I forecast a artic front or cold weather coming I would never forecast a WHITE CHRISTMAS that would be insane.

Maybe HeatMiser and SnowMiser made a deal?! Y'all remember that animated show "Year Without A Santa Claus?"

I guess we would file such a weather event under "Signs that the Apocalypse is Near."

Yea, I remember that show...Oh the good old day's, wern't they brothers and thier mom was Mother Nature?

#6 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:14 am

Great reading folks... Could anyone tell me where I can find the gfs or any other model with a precip type animation out beyond three days. Thats all I've been able to find. Thanks in advance. :oops:

#7 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:15 am

Wpwxguy wrote:Great reading folks... Could anyone tell me where I can find the gfs or any other model with a precip type animation out beyond three days. Thats all I've been able to find. Thanks in advance.

Try this link:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/index.shtml

cctxhurricanewatcher · #8 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:17 am

Where's the rain/snow line? Can you believe actually asking that question in Texas? :lol:

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:42 pm

I'd put it at more like half the state, but who's getting picky?? If I am not mistaken using the 850mb as a go by the 534 line is usually the snow line or close to it. Feel free to correct me if someone knows better for sure.

Oh, and I am not holding my breath waiting for this to actually happen!!!

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:46 pm

Good call (and correction) vbhoutex! Thanks.

I don't think any of us buy into the details ... but clearly the trend for all the models now is a progressive cold, cold, colder. I guess it'll all hinge on where the polar vortex sets up shop.

KWT · #11 Postby **KWT** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:30 pm

wow,my god is 12z good for the U.K,infact I would say it even has a look of another severe winter,with a midatlantic block by 250hrs,as well as a ratrogrossing high near Seibria,bringing down northerlies by Christmas,and for the last few runs now a cooldown has been evident,and whats even more amazing is that the seibrian high moves towards Scandinavia,which in turn could devlop a easterly,which providing the blocks hold firm,could plunge us into a very cold easterly for a fair time!!!

Very intresting,from the U.K!!!

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:35 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I'd put it at more like half the state, but who's getting picky?? If I am not mistaken using the 850mb as a go by the 534 line is usually the snow line or close to it. Feel free to correct me if someone knows better for sure.

Oh, and I am not holding my breath waiting for this to actually happen!!!

it's actually the 540dm thickness schemes on a normal schemed atmosphere, but almost never, do we see a normal scheme ...

LaBreeze wrote:How reliable is the GFS that far out? Just wondering.

about as reliable as bargaining w/a hungry polar bear with a can of tuna ... the GFS in the MR/LR should ONLY be used for overall longwave pattern schemes, and NEVER details past day 5 ... and in my discussions, I generally don't use the GFS EXCEPT inside of 84 hours ...

Wpwxguy wrote:Great reading folks... Could anyone tell me where I can find the gfs or any other model with a precip type animation out beyond three days. Thats all I've been able to find. Thanks in advance"

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ETA.html
(Select 00z/12z 4 panel Precip type)-2nd toolbar ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/GFS.html
(Select the last link on the 1st toolbar - Animated 00z and 12z GFS maps).

Select on the RAP.UCAR ... the time frame (or loop all times) and precip type ... NOTE: trying to forecast/prog a specific rain/snow line past 72 hours is not sound meteorology ...

SF

cctxhurricanewatcher · #13 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:48 pm

I guess I need to make sure my digital and video cameras are ready to go for this. :lol:

3 inches of snow in Corpus on Dec 24? :roll:

KWT · #14 Postby **KWT** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:54 pm

heres one for Europe,with snow getting as far south as Spain:

PTrackerLA · #15 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 2:13 pm

LOL 3-6" for my area, I'll believe it when I see it!

BTW, I thought we would be getting alot colder than this next week. Either there isn't that much cold air coming down or the NWS is being conservative :?:

. These are SEASONABLE temps at best!

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 60. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S.

#16 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 2:35 pm

*****VBHOUTEX*********FAINTS :froze:

and HYPERVENTILATES :fools:

after looking at Accuweather snowcover maps.

Thanks SF for the correction. I don't remember who told me the 534 line. I guess it could be used if you want to be conservative.

It is interesting to listen to the OCM's around here and not a one of them is hinting at this cold intrusion at all. In fact Frank Billingsley said that our Christmas would be warm and maybe wet. We shall see how quickly he changes that since he uses Accuweather. I wonder if they are all trying to wait till it is closer to verification and/or they are afraid to go out on a limb.

Kennethb · #17 Postby **Kennethb** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 3:01 pm

The NWS here in LA will soon adjust their temps. I expect our first freeze, 30-32 degrees here in BR Wednesday morning. Highs in the 50's.

tano68 · #18 Postby **tano68** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 3:25 pm

It looks like Texas all the way to the gulf coast are in for some cold, cold air next week. I hate the cold, but I'm ready to get rid of the mosquitoes and I have to admit, it is kinda exciting after all the weird hot weather and so close to Christmas! This is from the Accuweather site (can I do that?,copy I mean) If not, admin please delete and I'm sorry.

An Alberta Clipper will race across southern Canada this weekend. The circulation around that storm will unleash a big batch of arctic air that has been harnessed over central and northern Canada for days. The much colder air will roar southward into the northern Plains on Sunday and will reach all the way to the Gulf states and East Coast by Tuesday. This will be the coldest weather so far this season over a broad area. The core of the cold will move from the northern Plains, across the Great Lakes and later into the Northeast.

Last Update: 2:56 PM EST

Tano

Jesus is the reason for the season

Johnny · #19 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 3:58 pm

vbhoutex, I've got an e-mail out to Frank Billingsley right now about that Christmas forecast he made. I'll let ya know what he says.

PTrackerLA · #20 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 5:06 pm

Kennethb wrote:The NWS here in LA will soon adjust their temps. I expect our first freeze, 30-32 degrees here in BR Wednesday morning. Highs in the 50's.

I don't know about that. Our low temps have been RAISED for next week...now only mid 40's monday-thursday. Looks like we'll have to wait even longer for the first freeze. I can't remember the last time that we didn't have at least a frost by December 9. What a year it has been :grrr:

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6z GFS says White Christmas for Texas

6z GFS says White Christmas for Texas

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