Tropical Storm Noru in the West Pacific

Gorky · #1 Postby **Gorky** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:37 pm

This thing is looking mighty impressive at the moment. 97W and 98W are mixed in amongst this huge swirl of clouds, but it seems like 98W is becoming the more dominant of the two, and if it can absorb, 97W development should be likely.

This storm could be massive :O

#2 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:42 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 161930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161930Z-170600ZDEC2004//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161351ZDEC2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 161200Z0, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (TALAS) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N9 131.9E4, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N0
155.4E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N6 150.6E2, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BETTER CONSOLIDATE AROUND A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND OUTFLOW IS SUBSTANTIAL IN BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, TRENDS OF 850 MB VORTICITY SHOW TWO DISTINCT LOBES WHICH HAVE STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR AND
UPDATE PARA 1.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEFFLER/HEATH/JAYKOSKI//

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 9:14 pm

It looks to be organizing fairly quickly and as usual, another massive typhoon could develop in the insides of this monster-wanna-be. Maybe another Pongsona? We don't know, but it should not take long for this monster to explode.

HurricaneBill · #4 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 10:44 pm

Overall, I'd say 2004 was an extremely active year for the WPAC. I know it isn't over yet, but here's the tally so far:

28 named systems

21 became typhoons

12 were intense typhoons (Category 3+)

7 became super typhoons

4 reached Category 5 status (Nida, Dianmu, Chaba, and Ma-On)

The strongest typhoons of 2004 were Dianmu and Chaba. Both had peak sustained winds of 155 knots (around 178 mph).

No typhoon made landfall as a Category 5 this year. However, Nida came extremely close as she brushed the Philippines.

The last typhoon to make landfall as a Category 5 was Super Typhoon Bilis in 2000. Bilis made landfall on Taiwan as a Category 5.

Most Category 5 landfalls occur in the Philippines or Taiwan. However, since 1945, other places to experience Category 5 landfalls have been China, Japan, Guam, and Okinawa.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 5:50 am

Thanks for the information, HurricaneBill. 8-)

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 6:05 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
340 PM LST FRI DEC 17 2004

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND...

A DEVELOPING MONSOON CIRCULATION WELL EAST OF GUAM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE MARIANA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. AT 1 PM LST...THE
CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 153
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...ABOUT 565 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 535 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE LATEST
COMPUTER GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INTO THE MARIANAS ON SUNDAY...
POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL STORM.

SHOULD THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP AND MOVE AS EXPECTED...HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AS YOU MAKE PLANS
FOR THE WEEKEND STAY INFORMED ON THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
SITUATION. BE READY TO PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCAL FLOODING
IF TROPICAL STORM OR FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SO CLOSE TO THE MARIANAS...A WARNING
MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED ON SHORT NOTICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WHICH IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON GUAM
BY DIALING 811 ON THE TELEPHONE...OR TUNE IN TO LOCAL NEWS SOURCES
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE IS AT HTTP:// http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM (LOWER CASE).

#7 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:15 pm

This is now listed as 32W on the NRL website.

HurricaneBill · #8 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 2:33 pm

Next name on the list is "Noru".

#9 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 3:33 pm

I suspect Advisory No.1 will be issued at 2100Z. The number of Supers is above average which is typical for a season when an ENSO warm phase starts. Also typical for such seasons is for most of the storms to form in the eastern portion of the region and tracks to the north towards Japan. Also typical is lower than average numbers for the SCS and the Philippine Sea. December typhoons can definitely be ferocious with the best example being the one the US Navy blundered into off the Philippines in December 1944.

Steve
8-)

James · #10 Postby **James** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 3:37 pm

It's only expected to reach 55kts by the end of the forecast period, so at least it is not expected to be anything major. Still, there is a lot of unpredictably with these systems, especially from this far out.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 17, 2004 10:54 pm

Some IWIC images of the day....

http://independentwx.com/images/32W/

Enjoy!

James · #12 Postby **James** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 3:38 am

Hey, those are cool! Thanks for the link!

#13 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 8:54 am

Upgraded to a TS.

James · #14 Postby **James** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 8:57 am

I notice that it hasn't been assigned a name yet. What strength does a storm in the W. Pacific need to reach to be assigned one?

#15 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 9:04 am

I thought it was TS strength. Maybe it will be named in the 3pm advisory?

James · #16 Postby **James** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 9:18 am

Perhaps so. I also thought it was TS strength, but I was just wondering why it isn't named already. Oh well. I'm sure it well be christened 'Noru' in due course.

#17 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:36 pm

The system will not be named until the Tokyo RSMC determines that it has become a Tropical Storm based upon 10 minute average winds of 60 km/hr. Then it will name the storm. JTWC uses a 1 minute average wind which is about 17% higher than the 10 minute ones. Have to remember that JTWC's advisories are unofficial and that Tokyo is the official warning and naming Center for WPAC.

Steve
8-)

James · #18 Postby **James** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:38 pm

Thanks for clarifying that, Steve! 8-)

James · #19 Postby **James** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 3:52 pm

The storm has now been assigned the name 'Noru'.

#20 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Dec 18, 2004 4:21 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:The system will not be named until the Tokyo RSMC determines that it has become a Tropical Storm based upon 10 minute average winds of 60 km/hr.

Ah, ok.

I checked the JMA earlier and it wasn't listed. However now they have listed it.

Tropical Storm Noru in the West Pacific

Tropical Storm Noru in the West Pacific

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