First Call with Amounts for Ohio Valley

[IndianaWxOnline]

The low pressure system will track from Texas into Central Ohio. The latest forecast guidance suggests the storm will approach 990 just north of Ohio. As the system moves northeastward, it will really begin to intensify and gather lots of moisture to work with. The trends throughout the past several months have been for a stronger system to develop then forecasted. At this point, I am leaning on an ETA/GFS combo, but am leaning towards the GFS/Canadian track. Also due to the models being to weak with the system, they normally end up being farther northwest then originally forecast. I do think that someone will see double digits and that blizzard conditions are possible somewhere across the Ohio Valley.

[wx247]

IMHO, there will most likely be a wider area of the lighter snowfall accumulations, but your heaviest snow track looks to be right on.

[PurdueWx80]

I'm almost certain there will be an area on the southern edge of this that will see SIGNIFICANT icing - on the order of 1-2" of sleet and freezing rain - the 06Z GFS has 2-3" of liquid QPF for these areas (overdone due to convective feedback, I think) and the Eta isn't far behind. Precip type will come down to dynamical cooling as well since there will be some impressive vertical motions along and north of the 850 and 700 low tracks. I am still looking for a repeat of Louisville's '94 storm, even if it's displaced further north or south, which means localized pockets will see up to 24" of snow, with many seeing 12-16". What's amazing is that an arctic air mass very similar to that from Jan 17-20 '94 will be right on the heels of this system, just in time for Christmas (also implies surface temps may be very cold (10's or 20's) just north and west of the cold front...hello 20-30:1 snow/liquid ratios!!!).

Note also that most guidance is now slowing the event out and extending the duration a bit as the energy in the SW kicks out and gets the low going - this originally looked to end by Wed evening in many areas but much of the guidance now extends the precip well into Thursday night.

P.S. There may be a nasty severe weather outbreak in the deep south with this given favorable upper divergence, strong flow off the Gulf, and a low level jet on the order or 60-80 kt)!

[PurdueWx80]

12Z Eta shifts a bit further south, now showing 12-15+" for Louisville and Cincy (although ice will be close by)!!!!!! Snow then extends towards Columbus and Cleveland as well....it's too bad Gordonsnow (or whoever the person from UK who just moved to Columbus is) is going back to the UK for Christmas.

[Matt31388]

Will Eastern Kentucky be getting in on the action?

[PurdueWx80]

Will Eastern Kentucky be getting in on the action?

Heavy rain will be likely in eastern KY - but the snow should be at a minimum until the upper trough comes in. Then, there should be snow showers and squalls like with this past storm.

[ohiostorm]

What about East Central Ohio?

[PurdueWx80]

What about East Central Ohio?

Well it kind of depends on which part - although you'll be closer to the action, I still think most of eastern OH will be in for heavy rain, w/ snow showers behind the system and major lake effect once again in favored regions. The heaviest synoptic snow in Ohio will probably occur from Cincinnati to Dayton and Columbus then up near Cleveland. Any shift in the track of the surface low will shift that to the left or right a bit, but the further east you live, the higher the chances of only rain. Still, as Don mentioned in another post, the very heavy snow and ice or rain will be very close to one another - the details of which may not be discernable until Tuesday evening or Wed. morning.

[ohiostorm]

To give you an idea of where I live, I'm about 25 miles west of the OH/ WVA border, and about 30 miles North of Interstate 70.

[PurdueWx80]

To give you an idea of where I live, I'm about 25 miles west of the OH/ WVA border, and about 30 miles North of Interstate 70.

Then I think that means you would be in for mostly rain. Stay tuned though, this is a good 48-72 hours away and any little swerve in the track would obviously change the outcome for a lot of folks.

[ohiostorm]

Whats the dates of this storm? When will it be here?

[PurdueWx80]

Whats the dates of this storm? When will it be here?

For eastern OH - rain begins near Wednesday midday...should be over by Thursday afternoon...but snow showers will kick in then.

[ohiostorm]

NO rain.. we've had enough rain this year. Bring some Christmas snow.