NWS----New Orleans

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
915 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-221200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
915 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AREA FROM THE WEST AND CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
WATERS EXCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS BY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RAINFALL...WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND A UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER LOUISIANA AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY COVER MOST OF THE AREA. STRONG
AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE HEAVY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF SMALL STREAMS...BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY.

...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE NEAR 32 DEGREES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...INLAND FROM THE COAST. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
FORM IN THE WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA COULD BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIXTURE
OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ON FRIDAY...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST...FROM WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL...ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT WITH NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED. RELATIVELY
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PREVENT ROADS FROM ICING OVER.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EAST BANK OF
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS
THAT HAVE NOT YET HAD A FREEZE THIS SEASON. ALSO...A HARD FREEZE IS
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S WILL BE COMMON. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL
INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE...AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FALL AS
LOW AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT MAINLY FOR THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.