East coast event, and coming pattern...

[wxguy25]

Monster problem is the KICKER s/w breaking off of the PV over Nunavut that helps to shove the PJ energy eastward. IF this was a JAN 2000 situation where there was a bit more of an amplified ridge along the west coast, and NO upstream kicker THEN we would be talking BIG… BIG… BIG… snowstorm well inland from the coast since the PJ energy would drop further west and allow the STJ s/w which developed the initial SLP area to track along/inland from the coast. The other thing that we are missing now but had on JAN 25-26 2000 was the block near Ireland and England which actually--to all intents and purposes--acted as a –NAO helping to hold the trough in place over the EUS.

We are LACKING that this time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

Here are some h5 charts from JAN 2000 for you to compare w/ the current synoptic setup

1/25 00z
1/25 12z
1/26 00z

Watch the 700h low track; the deformation zone/UVV max will follow that. As you can see, the 0z ETA shoves it off the NC coast between 18z SUN and 0z MON.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

The 0z GFS looks similar to the 18z run, and the 21z 12/25 SREF supports the operational model runs w/ coastal areas getting clipped by some of the heavier QPF.

To the North over SNE and LI snow-liquid ratios will play an important role given the cold air in place and COULD help those areas get the most out of the QPF that gets thrown back inland.

A detailed map will be out SOON.

Furthermore, as most of you are aware, and I have beaten this point into the ground several times before—you simply have a LESSER chance of getting a Major east coast snowstorm w/ a complex synoptic setup. IF one goes back through the Kocin books you would understand where im coming from.

It is usually the relationship between the PV, -NAO (blocking ridge) and 50-50 low that determine whether or not a major or significant event will occur.

This will be a fun event for the Southeast, and SNE but NOT a major and widespread event for all the Northeast and WILL NOT reach the scope of JAN 2000.

From a pattern standpoint, this is probably the LAST opportunity for the EUS for at least the next 15-20 days (assuming the EC is correct and then once the pattern does change and the longwave trough kicks eastward you still have to wait at least another week for it to readjust completely (WRT the position of critical features such as a –NAO or blocking feature over the North Atlantic if it is to develop, a system either resulting from a Midwest bomb or clipper must become a 50-50 low, and the PV has to set-up in a favorable position) before one can get a major east coast snowstorm.

I don’t foresee much potential for the EUS through the first week of JAN. Tonight’s 12z ECMWF to D+10 sucked to high heaven w/ shortening of the longwave pattern over the North PAC as the ridge develops in the GOA near 150 W longitude, which forces the trough down along or just off the west coast near 120 W (RNA pattern) and subsequently the DREADED SE ridge comes roaring back w/ A VENGANCE. This would be mitigated to an extent IF the NAO were more favorable but unless I’ve drank too much eggnog (VERY VERY possible, but not enough to impair my judgment that severely) that is one LARGE PV center over Greenland w/ roaring Atlantic jet. In any case if the NAO were negative we could get a 50-50 low to suppress the height field off the east coast either 1) suppressing the SE ridge enough so that its more of a FLAT ridge vs. a highly amplified one or 2) develop the ridge further west over the GOM or TX/NRN Mexico.

It is the combination of a +NAO/+AO/-PNA (RNA pattern) which result in the WARMEST possible pattern during the cold season for the EUS. We will experience this for a while once the trough currently in place lifts out.

SO enjoy the arctic air in place now and shot of snow the next 36 to 48 hrs b/c it’s ON ITS WAY OUT for at least 2 weeks.

Now what happens after the trough retrogrades out west, and RNA pattern sets up w/ a mainly +NAO? Well simple, the storm track shifts west too. This should be from the SW to the Upper Midwest and WRN lakes. The ski resorts in the Rockies will like this, and it presents us w/ the possibility for another wrap-up Midwest storm BUT this time MUCH further west than the OV blizzard since the longwave trough is near 120 W as well as wintry wx chances across the PAC northwest.

It may take a wrap-up Midwest storm going into the lakes and then Central Canada to develop the PV again over Hudson bay—which thereby would put the kibosh on the crappy pattern that is about to set in for the next 14 days (at least).

[Brent]

Break out the shorts and sunscreen.

This is just ridiclous... forget the snow. 30's the last 3 days and back to 60 by Monday or Tuesday after being near 70 last Wednesday. People wonder why everyone here has a cold.

[wxguy25]

Break out the shorts and sunscreen.

This is just ridiclous... forget the snow. 30's the last 3 days and back to 60 by Monday or Tuesday after being near 70 last Wednesday. People wonder why everyone here has a cold.

Speaking of the Sunscreen--I think I'm going to make my way to the beach on MON or TUE afternoon after work once the Low pulls away from the state and drier air comes in. BEST part though, all I have to do is go out my back door. Normally the UV index averages between a 2 and 4 down here at this time of year (proportional of course to the low sun angle) BUT its still enough to rebuild my now VERY faded tan.

[Skywatch_NC]

Martinsville Weather (Kevin) says some pro long term forecasters...he happened to mention this on his site...that around after January 10th hopefully COLD air will become more entrenched and some more interesting wx precip...so we'll endure the next 2 weeks of pacific zonal flow and then hope for the much-better in terms of winter wx.

60s for here by mid to late week, too.

Eric

[Anonymous]

I think I'll go spend the next 2-3 weeks down in the Outer Banks, enjoying long warm beach jebwalks. It should easily top 75 degrees down there during the RNA Pattern.

-Jeb

[wxguy25]

I think I'll go spend the next 2-3 weeks down in the Outer Banks, enjoying long warm beach jebwalks. It should easily top 75 degrees down there during the RNA Pattern.

-Jeb

well in the meantime the OBX are going to get some snow

UPDATED map is out

http://wxguy.storm2k.org/dec2527.jpg

[weatherlover427]

Martinsville Weather (Kevin) says some pro long term forecasters...he happened to mention this on his site...that around after January 10th hopefully COLD air will become more entrenched and some more interesting wx precip...so we'll endure the next 2 weeks of pacific zonal flow and then hope for the much-better in terms of winter wx.

60s for here by mid to late week, too.

Come on now, the WEST has to have its turn too...

[stormman]

sorry wxguy, but that forecast is way off, you have me here in philly in the 3-6 no way, more like coating to 1 inch.

[Anonymous]

Yup, better enjoy it today through Monday one more time before the RNA pattern returns to the west next week. I'm very aware of this since about Dec.21 when I noticed the change coming after X'mas. Sorry to hear that but I really do think there wil be major changes the second half of winter after mid JAN. Hopefully we can get the -NAO re-established by then.


Happy New Year !

Ken

Currently we have a cold rain/slight mix and 33 F

[donsutherland1]

Wxguy25,

Among other things, you noted: This will be a fun event for the Southeast, and SNE but NOT a major and widespread event for all the Northeast and WILL NOT reach the scope of JAN 2000.

From a pattern standpoint, this is probably the LAST opportunity for the EUS for at least the next 15-20 days (assuming the EC is correct and then once the pattern does change and the longwave trough kicks eastward you still have to wait at least another week for it to readjust completely (WRT the position of critical features such as a –NAO or blocking feature over the North Atlantic if it is to develop, a system either resulting from a Midwest bomb or clipper must become a 50-50 low, and the PV has to set-up in a favorable position) before one can get a major east coast snowstorm.

I don’t foresee much potential for the EUS through the first week of JAN.

I strongly agree that with the exception of the evolving event that should bring appreciable/significant snow to PVD-BOS and eastward (possibly eastern Long Island), etc., there will likely be little meaningful opportunity for appreciable or greater snowfall across much of the East through at least the first week in January.