Serious flooding poss. OV next week EDIT - again this week

[PurdueWx80]

Now that much (but not all) of the snow has melted from the OV's record Christmas-week snowstorm, the ground has become saturated and many creeks and rivers are swollen and flooded. As the trough in the western CONUS spits out pieces of energy (with new pieces falling in from over the ridge), surface low pressure waves will ride along the front, each further south than the previous one. Warm, very moist air is already in place south of the front, so the ingredients are there for some major flash and river flooding. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur as very strong warm air advection (WAA) occurs over top colder air at the surface, and a major laydown of snow and ice will occur north of the front all week. With precipitable water progged to exceed 1.5" at times in the Ohio Valley, very heavy rainfall totals will quickly add up in this "tropical-like" atmosphere. The 2-3" of water left behind from last week's storm plus rain totals that may exceed 5" this week means flooding will increase as the week progresses. These types of January thaw events have led to some of the worst flooding occurring on the Ohio River in January, and this one may vie with previous record floods. Stay tuned if you live by any major stream or river in the Midwest/Ohio Valley. The record rainfall of 2004 in Louisville and many OV sites looks to continue on into the new year. Happy New year!

[ohiostorm]

Plus the eastern sections of the OV is already very saturated from September when Frances and Ivan came through. Keep that in mind. Doesn't take much for creeks to run at bankful anymore.

[jeff]

Significant flood event expected from NE TX through SW Ohio.

Strong baroclinic zone along with deep layer moisture from the Gulf and Pacific and several short wave disturbances will provide copious rainfall from NE of Dallas through Little Rock and then along the Ohio River.

PWS are forecast to increase into the 1.25 to 1.45 in range over the next 24-36 hours as Gulf moisture continues to surge northward ahead of a deepening surface low over the central plains. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will continue to develop in a strong WAA regime and diffluent upper air pattern from NE TX into the OV. The upper level flow is mainly from the SW to NE and will maintain a stalled boundary through this region for most of the week while a low level SSW jet of 35-45kts provide ample moist inflow in a long and organized convective band.

Rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches will be common over the next 5 days with scattered 5-9 inch amounts. Somebody over Ark into S Ill and S IN will probably see a 10 inch plus total. Grounds are saturated and watersheds swollen from snow melt and rains of the past month. In addition a lack of vegetation grow and foilage will increase the run-off potential compared to the warmer months. Flash Flood Guidance is 1-2 inches across the region with higher amounts (2-3 inches) into NE TX. Rainfall of the magnitude expected will cause short term flash flooding in the areas of heavy convection and training and longer term river and creek flooding.

Persons along rivers and creeks should remain alert for rapidly rising water and be prepared to move to higher ground. DO NOT drive through flooded roadways as the depth and velocity of the water may be too great for passage.

[PurdueWx80]

Update - major long-term flooding now expected on many rivers in Indiana and the Ohio Valley/Midwest.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1218 PM EST TUE JAN 04 2005

FLOOD WARNING FOR...EAST FORK WHITE RIVER...EEL RIVER...MUSCATATUCK
RIVER...SUGAR CREEK...WABASH RIVER AND WHITE RIVER IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE EAST FORK WHITE RIVER...EEL RIVER...MUSCATATUCK
RIVER...SUGAR CREEK...WABASH RIVER AND WHITE RIVER IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  THIS RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY...JANUARY 14.

SIGNIFICANT RAIN OF 2 OR MORE INCHES WILL FALL IN MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  [b]THE RESULTING FLOOD ALONG AREA
RIVERS WILL BE AMONG THE HIGHEST IN THE LAST 3 YEARS.  NEAR MAJOR
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN SEVERAL AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA FROM FRIDAY JANUARY 7 THROUGH FRIDAY JANUARY 14.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION FLOOD.  FLOODING WILL LAST FROM A
WEEK IN CENTRAL INDIANA TO THREE WEEKS IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.  FLOOD FIGHTING ACTIVITES WILL OCCUR IN
RATHER HARSH JANUARY WEATHER CONDITIONS.[/b]

BY THE WEEKEND...NUMEROUS LOCAL RIVER ROADS AND SEVERAL STATE ROADS
WILL FLOOD.  SOME ROADS WILL FLOOD BY SEVERAL FEET.  TURN AROUND
AND GO ANOTHER ROUTE IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROAD.

EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING WAS IN PROGRESS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.  FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL GET MUCH
WORSE BY THE WEEKEND IN MOST AREAS.

KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. MOVE LIVESTOCK AND EQUIPMENT
TO HIGHER GROUND.  EVACUATE BEFORE YOUR ESCAPE ROUTE IS BLOCKED BY
HIGH WATER.

&&
SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS FOLLOW...


                            FORECASTS FOR 7 AM EST
             FLD / OBS   WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN  CREST FORECAST
 LOCATION      STAGE    01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 STAGE   DATE

EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
COLUMBUS       9   8.3    9.8  12.0  13.1  10.8   7.3  13.1 01/06 PM
SEYMOUR       12  17.5   17.2  17.5  18.0  17.8  16.8  17.7 01/04 PM
RIVERVALE     20  23.8   24.8  27.1  29.2  30.6  31.7  31.7 01/09 AM
BEDFORD       20  20.5   19.3  22.3  24.9  27.1  28.9  30.0 01/11 AM
WILLIAMS       8   8.2    9.3  12.4  13.8  15.5  16.8  14.0 01/06 PM
SHOALS        20  17.6   18.6  21.1  23.0  23.7  24.3  26.3 01/12 PM

WHITE RIVER
MUNCIE         9   9.3    8.5   9.5   9.5   8.0   7.1   9.2 01/04 PM
ANDERSON 10TH 10  11.3   11.9  10.7  12.2  11.2   9.6  11.9 01/05 AM
NOBLESVILLE   14  14.7   16.6  17.7  18.7  18.0  16.7  18.7 01/07 AM
NORA 82ND ST  11  11.6   13.5  16.7  16.3  15.4  13.9  17.1 01/06 PM
RAVENSWOOD     6          8.7  10.9  10.6   9.9   8.9  11.3 01/06 PM
INDIANAPOLIS  16  13.1   13.7  16.3  16.7  15.0  13.3  17.1 01/06 PM
CENTERTON     12  14.8   15.3  15.9  17.3  16.9  16.3  17.5 01/07 PM
IPL PWR PLT  603        606.5 607.3 609.2 608.8 608.0 609.4 01/07 PM
SPENCER       14  16.6   19.6  21.5  22.5  22.8  22.7  22.9 01/08 PM
ELLISTON      18  22.3   24.8  26.4  27.5  28.1  28.0  28.1 01/08 AM
NEWBERRY      13  16.6   18.2  21.7  22.8  24.0  24.0  24.0 01/08 PM
EDWARDSPORT   15  16.4   20.5  22.5  23.8  24.3  25.1  25.2 01/09 PM
PETERSBURG    16  18.8   19.6  21.3  23.1  24.3  25.0  25.7 01/12 PM
HAZLETON      16  17.0   19.5  20.8  22.1  23.7  25.1  27.0 01/14 AM

WABASH RIVER
LAFAYETTE     11  15.7   17.0  17.9  18.7  16.0  11.7  18.7 01/07 AM
COVINGTON     16  17.1   19.1  22.6  23.9  23.9  22.6  24.0 01/07 PM
MONTEZUMA     14  19.1   20.7  22.9  25.5  26.0  25.1  26.0 01/08 AM
TERRE HAUTE   14         18.6  19.6  20.8  21.8  22.1  22.1 01/09 AM
HUTSONVILLE   16  18.2   19.1  20.8  22.2  22.8  23.4  23.8 01/10 PM
RIVERTON      15  16.8   17.4  19.1  19.9  20.3  20.8  21.2 01/10 PM
RED SKELTON B 18  15.5   16.9  19.5  22.5  23.7  24.0  24.6 01/11 PM
VINCENNES     16  14.0   15.3  17.7  20.0  21.0  21.2  21.8 01/11 PM
MT. CARMEL    19  17.2   18.2  21.3  23.9  26.0  27.3  29.8 01/13 PM

EEL RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 17  19.4   15.2  21.5  16.7  13.2  10.7  19.4 01/04 PM

SUGAR CREEK
CRAWFORDSVILL  8   6.0    4.6  10.4   6.5   3.0   1.4  10.4 01/06 AM

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

...THE OHIO RIVER IS ON THE RISE AT MANY LOCATIONS...

FORECASTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO SEND RIVER
POINTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER RISING. MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO FALL AND IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...IT WILL
COMBINE WITH RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS TO SEND MANY POINTS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. BELOW IS A DETAILED LIST OF POINTS AFFECTED BY THE
PRECIPITATION.

THE OHIO RIVER AT NEWBURGH DAM.
* 9 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 32.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 38 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 43.9 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OHIO RIVER AT MOUNT VERNON.
* 7 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 30.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 39.9 FEET THURSDAY MORNING.

THE OHIO RIVER AT J.T. MYERS DAM.
* 11 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 31.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 45.8 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.

THE OHIO RIVER AT GOLCONDA.
* 9 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 33.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 40 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 45.9 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.

THE OHIO RIVER AT PADUCAH.
* 9 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 29.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 39 FEET.
* WILL CREST AT 39.0 FEET NEXT TUESDAY.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING.

THE OHIO RIVER AT BROOKPORT DAM.
* 6 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 30.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 37 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 41.0 FEET TUESDAY MORNING.

THE OHIO RIVER AT GRAND CHAIN DAM.
* 6 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 35.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 42 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 46.0 FEET TUESDAY MORNING.

THE OHIO RIVER AT CAIRO.
* 10 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 32.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 40 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 45.0 FEET TUESDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD STARTING
PREPARING FOR HIGH WATER. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS FLOOD
EVENT.

&&
                  FLD    OBS      FORECAST 7AM     
LOCATION          STG    STG    WED    THU    FRI    CREST

OHIO RIVER
  NEWBURGH DAM     38   32.6    35.7   38.4   40.6   43.9 WED PM
  MOUNT VERNON     35   30.0    30.2   32.6   34.8   39.9 THU AM
  J.T. MYERS DAM   37   31.6    32.0   34.8   37.7   45.8 FRI AM
  GOLCONDA         40   33.3    33.4   33.7   35.2   45.9 SAT AM
  PADUCAH          39   29.1    30.2   31.3   33.3   39.0 TUE AM
  BROOKPORT DAM    37   30.8    31.9   33.0   35.0   41.0 TUE AM
  GRAND CHAIN DAM  42   35.2    36.6   38.1   40.5   46.0 TUE AM
  CAIRO            40   32.9    34.5   36.8   39.5   45.0 TUE AM
$$
DLL



 


 

WGUS43 KPAH 041731
FLWPAH
INC051-129-ILC059-185-193-051724-
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1127 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED
A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PATOKA RIVER AT PRINCETON AND THE WABASH
RIVER AT NEW HARMONY...

HEAVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH RECENT SNOW MELT...CONTINUES TO CAUSE
RISES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS RUNOFF IN COMBINATION
WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SEND MANY POINTS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BELOW IS SOME DETAILED INFORMATION.

THE PATOKA RIVER NEAR PRINCETON.
* 9 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* SHOULD REACH 16.8 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 21.0 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.

THE WABASH RIVER AT NEW HARMONY.
* 11 AM TUESDAY STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET.
* WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* SHOULD REACH 13.2 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 20.5 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.
* THIS WILL CAUSE MODERATE FLOODING. AT 15.0 FEET THE RIVER OVERFLOWS
LOW GROUND ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGH WATER
BY MOVING THEMSELVES...PROPERTY...AND LIVESTOCK TO HIGHER GROUND. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AS THE DEPTH MAY BE
TOO GREAT TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR
NEAR FLOOD WATERS.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED FORECASTS.   

&&
                  FLD    OBS      FORECAST 7AM     
LOCATION          STG    STG    WED    THU    FRI    CREST

PATOKA RIVER
  PRINCETON        18   15.2    16.8   19.2   20.3   21.0 SUN AM

WABASH RIVER
  NEW HARMONY      15   12.2    13.2   14.9   16.3   20.5 SAT AM

 

[ohiostorm]

We will be getting lots of rain from this next system and all the water will be heading your way. Watch the Ohio River down there later in the weekend. Forecasts have it near or at flood stage by January 6th.

[PurdueWx80]

Moderate to Major (and possibly record) flooding expected on many rivers now. Indianapolis is already at more than twice their monthly total of rainfall for January and we're not even a week in.

I am becoming increasingly concerned about next week. Rivers, especially smaller ones well removed from the Ohio River, will have some time to recover before the pattern change and resulting major system come through. However, the Ohio will have an extended flooding event that will only increase next week. I foresee widespread rainfall of 3-6" AGAIN next week. This will affect the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Mississippi valley as a major warm up occurs ahead of the system. Areas that had snow and ice this week will likely be prone to serious flooding as well. After that, it looks to me like the Plains and eventually the East will be in for some majorly cold weather.

[ohiostorm]

About the entire area is under flood warnings. Many streams starting to recede now but the bigger creeks and rivers including the Ohio River are rising and reaching flood stage. River Flood Warnings have been issued for the Ohio River for today and tomorrow. Crests will be about 6 feet above flood stage in many areas. I will post more information.

[PurdueWx80]

Near Major flooding expected here in Lafayette after last night's 1-3" rainfall and tonight's expected 1". The Wabash River has been above flood stage for well over a week. This is very serious now, if the river gets much above the projections, MANY homes and businesses in this area will be flooded out. Tonight will be a hairy situation, as the heaviest rain may not make it here until very late - which is a typical "low" point in convective activity because of instability. However, with high-PW air and the slow-moving cold front (upper flow more parallell than perpendicular to front), I'd expect most areas to see 0.5-1.5" with a few over 2".

It is, I'm sad to say, worse in other areas of the state. These projections take the Wabash higher than the major flooding of the summer of 2003 - which is something I'll never forget after seeing over 10" of rain in one night. The difference now is that no vegetation can soak up that water so it takes less than half as much to do the dirty work. Hopefully people on the floodplains learned their lessons, if not then, maybe now.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EST WED JAN 12 2005

FLOOD WARNING FOR WABASH RIVER IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE WABASH RIVER IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY. MAJOR FLOODING
IS EXPECTED IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. RIVER
LEVELS MAY APPROACH AND EXCEED THOSE OF THE JULY 2003 FLOOD.

RAIN OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FELL IN MUCH OF THE WABASH RIVER DRAINAGE
UPSTREAM OF LAFAYETTE. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF
THAT EXPECTED RAIN. THE RIVER AT LAFAYETTE COULD RISE TO THE
25 FOOT LEVEL BY FRIDAY MORNING.

PERSONS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. THE WABASH RIVER
WAS RISING STEADILY THIS MORNING AND HAD ALREADY PASSED THE 18
FOOT LEVEL AND WAS RISING STEADILY.

Most rivers in the northern half of Indiana will experience moderate to major (and even record) flooding with last night's rain on top of frozen soil and 1-2" of liquid-equivalent-snow/ice-cover. Flooding will occur in much of the Ohio River Valley, and flooding on the Ohio itself will be extended. This will become a VERY dangerous situation (not that it isn't already) given temperatures near or below zero this weekend and early next week. That will hamper flood-fighting efforts and frozen water will be left behind in widespread areas. In the meantime, I'm going to go out and enjoy the sun and temps in the mid-60's.

Check out http://www.crh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?ind&lafi3 for interesting river stage and historic data...

[PurdueWx80]

Worst flooding in 62 years now expected with major (but not record flooding). Numerous evacuations underway - many homes will become flooded. Wabash River to crest near 27' some 16 feet above flood stage! A few feet higher and the entire downtown (where I live) would start flooding. Don't think that'll happen with the rain nearly over now. Crest expected Saturday morning here, when temps will be in the single digits...that's not pretty for sandbaggers. Backwater areas (including fields and in houses/businesses) will rapidly freeze, causing even more damage to structures affected by flooding. The search for the missing man may as well be called off for now. It's scary to think where his body might be. Say a prayer for his family if you believe in those kinds of things.

Story from our (crappy) local station:

A Tippecanoe County couple in their 80's was rescued Wednesday night from their home by the Tippecanoe County Dive Team.

"They were in their 80's. They've apparently lived [in the house] since 1956. Very nice couple and they made the smart move -- they decided the water had come up over their driveway and they were basically on an island," explained Tippecanoe County Sheriff Smokey Anderson. Roughly 100 yards separated the couple from dry land. The Tippecanoe County Dive team waded through the water with its inflatable zodiac rescue boat to pick up the couple.

"There wasn't even enough water for us to use the motor we just waded it in a wading detail carried them out one by one, put em in a boat bring them to safety and they're gonna stay with family," said Anderson.

Sheriff Anderson says the couple did the right thing in getting out now before the weather gets colder and flood waters get deeper.

Meanwhile, rising water hampered efforts to find the body of 68-year old Donald Moore. After days of looking for him in a flooded Fountain County field and the Wabash River, police say the search will have to wait until water goes down.

More than 10 boats and 40 searchers made their way into the Wabash River and a nearby flooded field looking for the body of Moore.

Moore's family is anxious for any news.

"The waiting -- even though you know he's gone," said Gene Garrett, Moore's brother-in-law.

Police believe Moore was swept away after his truck went off a flooded road Friday.

Garrett says Moore was not in good health.

"[He} didn't have strength after [a] heart attack. He was pretty weak."

Vermillion County, Illinois Police brought in sonar equipment.

"It will show certain things under water -- not a body per say -- but an item and we also have an underwater camera if we do come across something," explained Vermillion Co. Illinois Sheriff Deputy Pat Alblinger.

Tippecanoe County Sheriff's Deputy Rob Rush said, "Hopefully we can find something any piece of an article of clothes -- something like that gives us an indication where he might be."

"Hope to get it done -- over with so the family can have some ease," said Garrett.

State Police also used a helicopter for an aerial view of the search area, but Mr. Moore's body has still not been found.