First Call With Amounts/Discussion

[IndianaWxOnline]

First here is my discussion:

A Major winter storm still looks to affect the area on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. One thing I did notice is that the cold air advection in Missouri just North of the front has weakened, but I think this is just a local issue, and am not concerned about this affecting the potential ice and Snow storm here in the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

As the wave of low pressure that is developing in the Southwest rides Northeast along the stalled out frontal boundary, a major winter event will develop. The models are finally starting to gain some consistency, but for the most part continue to underestimate the cold air and its advancement South.

Just glanced at the new ETA and it still is showing a very significant freezing rain event across the Central Ohio Valley. The new ETA shows a much stronger and more progressive arctic high, which would mean that the cold air and shallow layer of cold air would be farther south, meaning that more of Indiana would get into freezing rain and snow. One other change I have noticed on the models, is that they are slowing down the storm, and this system will likely be more prolonged then originally thought. There is a slight chance that at some point on Wednesday, there could be a 4 hour window that parts of the area change over to plain rain, especially if the ETA is correct, but again at this point, I am leaning towards a colder solution which would mean all freezing rain. If there is a period of rain it won't last long and rain will quickly change back over to freezing rain.

I have decided after looking at some more forecast data, that precip. amounts need to be considerably higher than what I was previously forecasting, which at this point is the only change to my forecast. It appears that heavier precip. will make it into the colder region of the storm, and there fore heavier amounts of freezing rain and snow are likely. The only thing I am concerned about this point is virga, but with plenty of moisture streaming Northward from the Gulf of Mexico, I am not to worried about that at this point.

So here are my new forecasts for precip:
.25-.5 ice: Vincennes to Bloomington to Connersville
.5-1.5 ice: Fountain County to Carmel to Anderson to Muncie over to Greenville
6 Inch snow line: Lafayette to Logansport to Peru to Bluffton and points North
*Some areas across Northern and Northwestern Indiana could see locally up to a foot, and I will try to outline those areas later today.

Also, another storm system will affect the area over the weekend, and well...just Stay Tuned!

First Call with Amounts
http://www.indianaweatheronline.com and click on the link at the top of the page to view the map!

[dvdweatherwizard]

IndianaWxOnline or anybody else, I'm not sure if you know about this website http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm or not, but it might be very helpful especially in times like this when we're dealing with the possibility of several different p-types in a region. The overall website http://www.wxcaster.com has a lot of cool stuff on it as well. Just thought I'd pass this along since we're dealing with a potential major storm.