#3 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:15 am
ANOTHER TORNADO_CHASER FORECAST
FINAL FORECAST FOR WINTER STORM GRANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
Tuesday, Jan 4, 2005 5:00 AM
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
PRE-STORM FACTS:
THE RAIN CHANCES WINTER STORM GRANT IS IS COMING TO AN END. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THIS WILL MAKE ITS PASS IN THE NEXT 4-8 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, EXPECT ALOT MORE RAIN, ASSOCIATED WITH A GIANT PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOW HITTING THE COASTAL AREAS NOW. WE WILL PICK UP MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS LAST SECTION OF GRANT. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR YOUR EVENING, AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TO THE EAST.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WINTER STORM GRANT DYNAMICS ARE NEARLY EXCELLENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. WE WILL HAVE 1000CAPE NEAR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, MORE THAN -4 LI'S, ISOLATED -7 NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN -30C TEMPS AT 500MB, THAT IS VERY COLD, AND THAT IS WHY WE SAW THE THUNDERSTORMS WE DID LAST NIGHT. IF YOU WERE IN THE LOS ANGELES, OR INLAND EMPIRE AREAS, YOU SAW THE BIGGEST THUNDERSTORM IN HISTORY AT 10PM. THAT THUNDERSTORM HAD NON-STOP LIGHTNING, THUNDER, AND ALSO SOME DECENT SIZED HAIL. IT WAS A HISTORIC THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS AREA, AND SHOULD BE REMEMBERED. TODAY, WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME, AND EVEN WORSE AS THE CENTER OF GRANT MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL, UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED, AND STRONG WINDS INSIDE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WATERSPOUTS WILL BE VERY LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL FORECAST AREA TODAY, INCLUDING SANTA MONICA BAY. ELSEWHERE, WE COULD VERY WELL SEE A FEW COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS. NO TOUCHDOWNS OF TORNADOES SHOULD HAPPEN TODAY AS WE ARE IN ONLY 25 HELICITY. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PEAK AT AROUND NOON, AND END AFTER SUNSET.
WIND CHANCES WINTER STORM GRANT'S WILL BE WEAK, UNLESS YOU ARE NEAR OR IN A THUNDERSTORM.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...2 STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON! WINTER STORM HERBERT, AND ISIS...THEY BOTH SHOULD CAUSE A MAJOR PROBLEM, AND THE STRENGTH IS EVEN STRONGER THAN GRANT'S. HERBERT WILL BE STRONGER THAN GRANT, AND ISIS LOOKS STRONGER THAN HERBERT. HERBERT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND ISIS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IF YOU ARE NOT PREPARED, GET PREPARED NOW. ISIS IS GOING TO BE AN EL NINO TYPE STORM, WARMER, AND MORE RAIN.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Tuesday, Jan 4, 2005 5:00 AM
WINTER STORM GRANT'S CENTER WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TODAY, AND SHOULD BE OUT AND DONE WITH US BY EVENING, ENDING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
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FLOOD WATCH
Tuesday, Jan 4, 2005 5:00 AM
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TILL 6PM TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS CAN RANGE FROM 3/4 INCH AN HOUR.
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HIGH WIND WARNING
Tuesday, Jan 4, 2005 5:00 AM
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ONLY WINDS WITHIN THE MAJOR THUNDERSTORM CELLS TODAY, WILL BE WHERE YOU WILL FIND THEM.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Tuesday, Jan 4, 2005 5:00 AM
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CAPE OF 1000, LI AT -4 SOME SPOTS HITTING -7, AND 500MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30 WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY. ALTHOUGH NOT TORNADO PRODUCES, WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS COULD BE SIGHTED, SO BE ON THE LOOK OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, LARGER, OR AS LARGE AS 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER. THE WATCH END 6PM TONIGHT.
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TORNADO WATCH
Tuesday, Jan 4, 2005 5:00 AM
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL FORECAST AREA. INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY COASTS, AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. THIS IS DUE TO WATERSPOUTS BEING HIGHLY LIKELY, AND THEY COULD MOVE ASHORE. SO ANYWHERE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS THE TORNADO WATCH.
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Tornado Chaser
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