Arctic Outbreak delay?

[Portastorm]

I'm wondering what the discussion below might mean for those of us who thought the Arctic outbreak into the central and southern Plains was a certainty. I think I would not like being a forecaster this week. They have their work cut out for them.

What do y'all think?

From this morning's Preliminary Discussion on the Medium Range from NWS in Washington:

THE 06Z GFS HAS CONTINUED THE TREND SEEN IN ITS 00Z RUN...WHICH
LEADS TO A LESS SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NORTH
AMERICA THAN ANTICIPATED THIS TIME YESTERDAY. IN FACT...SEVERAL
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ONE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBER
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS 6-7
/NEXT MON-TUE/. A CHECK OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ REVEALS
THAT IT HAS YET TO CHANGE SIGN... REMAINING STRONGLY POSITIVE WITH
SIGNS OF A NEW COLD EPISODE IN THE STRATOSPHERE UNDERWAY. A
POSITIVE AO USUALLY FAVORS MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES
THAN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN. HENCE THE 10/12Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSMEAN APPEAR TO BE ON TO SOMETHING IN AGREEING ON A LESS
AGGRESSIVE EASTERN TROUGH.

[Brent]

Mets here have raised the temperatures significantly for the weekend. Mid 20's/Upper 40's now instead of Teens/30's.

[Air Force Met]

My idea on all this is that it will be shot after shot...with each on a little colder. The mother load is coming down. Pieces will break off and it is a matter of some frontgenesis on whether or not the bulk of the arctic air finally comes in by late weekend (like Sunday or so) or waits until early next week. It is coming.

As far as houston area is concerned. This first piece that comes through will cool us down by 20-25 degrees from what we are now. By Sunday (if there is no frontogenesis) and Monday we will see the lows in the teens or low 20's with highs in the 30's and some overrunning setting up by Tuesday and Wednesday. If the wave does form on the front...then delay those cold temps by 2 days.

It is hard to say if the wave will form. Many times the models like to form waves on the lee-side of the Rockies during arctic fronts...and they then dam up the air to the north until the wave kicks out. But... a lot of times this wave never does form and the arctic air comes on down. It is a wait and see what will happen. Right now...I like the Canadian models solution the best: A double barreled high...one coming down by Friday/Saturday and another still sitting up north of Alaska. This is the high the GFS is seizing on as being the mother load.

So...it looks like a two shot arctic blast. According to the GFS...they come closer together early next week while the Euro and the Canadian (and dare I say JMA)...along with the UKMET bring the first one down this weekend...then the second one down early next week.

[sertorius]

Air Force Met:

Excellent points!! The gfs began shoing the stronger push next week a couple of days and the euro is is showing the coldest air by Tuesday (If I am reading it correctly) It is still going to be cold here in the central plains-it may not be 1989 Feb. or December cold, but we will be 15-20 degrees below normal for a day or two and then stay below freezing untill the next one comes down-that is pretty cold. As of now, early next week looks more interesting for my area than this week does!!!

By the way, I remember that arctic front of Feb. 1989: I was attending school at KU when it hit-the day before, I was fishing at Clinton Resiv. in shorts-the next night, I was sledding down Campaneli hill-it was great. Of course December of that same year saw the true mother load with our low hitting 24 below!!!

[Portastorm]

Thanks Air Force Met for your thoughts and putting it in perspective. Since joining S2K, I have come to appreciate and respect your knowledge!

I think next week will be a very interesting and active weather week for most of us!

[Burn1]

I still do not see where you are coming up with this huge blast of cold
air for SE Texas....

May see a day or two next week of just below normal temps, but then
normal temps for the remainder of the month.....

This message is just verifying that any of the colder than normal stuff
will be shifting the east to northeast[/quote]

[Portastorm]

What the Internet phrase for someone who gets on a message board and posts just to annoy and anger people?? ...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Trolls!

[Burn1]

Hey, This is an open forum and I am giving my honest opinion which
could, or could not be correct.

I take offense to the word troll as I enjoy reading everyone's insight.
Then of course I can place an opinion.

Has nothing to do with trying to anger someone wanting "Cold Air".......
Just some friendly banter......I apologize if it did

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It would help if you were to post something to back up your statements like a model run, NWS AFD, the movement of a flock of birds, etc.

[GalvestonDuck]

Your complaints have been noted.

Burn1, please try a little more civility in your tone. If you disagree with someone's forecast, fine. However, please offer a bit of discussion as to why you believe someone else's forecast is off the mark.

Many of us are here to learn from others and we value differing opinions on forecasts, models, and outcomes. If you could explain WHY you think something else will happen, it will help others understand your point of view a lot better.

[Portastorm]

Burn1, I am just at a loss to understand how ANYONE can say that the southern Plains will experience normal temps next week, given what ALL of the computer models are suggesting.

I've seen your other posts and at every turn, you've dogged S2K forecasters about this cold outbreak. Sure we are all entitled to an opinion and I will apologize if I judged you too quickly ... but again, I just don't know how in the world you can suggest what you are suggesting given the facts/information that we all are seeing.

Guys like Air Force Met, Jeff, Don Sutherland ... these are smart, savvy weather people who post regularly and forecast cautiously but with impressive results. They don't post their thoughts lightly and, given time, you will see what I'm talking about.

So, let's let the weather be the judge and I will not use the "T" word again in reference to you. Please accept my apologies.

[CaptinCrunch]

Current Temps

[Air Force Met]

I still do not see where you are coming up with this huge blast of cold
air for SE Texas....

May see a day or two next week of just below normal temps, but then
normal temps for the remainder of the month.....

This message is just verifying that any of the colder than normal stuff
will be shifting the east to northeast

[/quote]

OK I don't think you are a troll...so let's talk meteorology. First of all...just below normal would mean that people may only see 5 degrees below normal. So Houston will only see a min of 35 or so and a max of 55 for a day or two. Just below normal means that Wichita KS...which has a normal high of about 40 and a low of 20...will see a low of 15 or so and a high about 35.

Is that what you are saying?

Second of all...given this is siberian air...with temps now -53 in Alaska...and a 1055mb high progged to be coming down into the southern plains of Canada (by all the models)...please give me the 1) Upper air pattern that would be needed to bring this down and 2) provide some analogs of prior arctic airmasses that did not come down into the plains with the current synoptic pattern...but got moved east. I am not talking what you think is going to happen now...but tell me...meteorologically...what is the pattern necessary for an arctic airmass (such as the one currently in AK and stretching into Siberia) to make it into the southern plains. PLease exaplin what the sfc pressures need to be (over 1060?) ...where does the ridge need to be...what about the polar vortex...etc. Since you think the mets here are mistaken on the arctic air take (and the mets in KS which are calling for temps of 25 degrees below normal for several days (which is not just below normal for a day or two)...give a detailed synoptic discussion of what must happen at the sfc and upper levels (across the hemisphere) in order for this to occur. What has to happen to make that arctic air come south?

Thanks.

[Air Force Met]

Burn1, I am just at a loss to understand how ANYONE can say that the southern Plains will experience normal temps next week, given what ALL of the computer models are suggesting.

I've seen your other posts and at every turn, you've dogged S2K forecasters about this cold outbreak. Sure we are all entitled to an opinion and I will apologize if I judged you too quickly ... but again, I just don't know how in the world you can suggest what you are suggesting given the facts/information that we all are seeing.

Guys like Air Force Met, Jeff, Don Sutherland ... these are smart, savvy weather people who post regularly and forecast cautiously but with impressive results. They don't post their thoughts lightly and, given time, you will see what I'm talking about.

So, let's let the weather be the judge and I will not use the "T" word again in reference to you. Please accept my apologies.

This is the same individual who kept saying Frances was going to hit SC/NC. We tried to tell him but he never listed to meteorology. We tried...but he insisted there would be a trough. We finally gave up on him and flyingphish. We know how that turned out.

Seriously...I don't mind disagreements...I just want facts (and not facts that are based on feelings)...and discuss the meteorology behind it.

[Burn1]

It's utterly amazing that you can pin point back to Hurricane season.....

Frankly I do not remember, but living here in S. FL I do believe I never
said Frances would hit NC/SC....

Also it is not base on feelings......

Listen guys I am an amateur weather buff and I respect all the
Prof Mets on this site....Highly.

My thoughts are coming from the NWS Forecast models.....that's all
Primitive to your observations, but at least it is based on something....

Take my observation for what it is worth and lets have fun posting.....
Sorry if I have offended anyone

[gboudx]

Burn1, I don't know you are anyone on this board personally. I too am also an amateur weather geek. But I know enough to know that engaging in a debate with a prof met, using only the NWS Forecast models, is like an atheist getting into a bible quoting contest with a nun.

[Air Force Met]

It's utterly amazing that you can pin point back to Hurricane season.....

Frankly I do not remember, but living here in S. FL I do believe I never
said Frances would hit NC/SC....

Also it is not base on feelings......

Listen guys I am an amateur weather buff and I respect all the
Prof Mets on this site....Highly.

My thoughts are coming from the NWS Forecast models.....that's all
Primitive to your observations, but at least it is based on something....

Take my observation for what it is worth and lets have fun posting.....
Sorry if I have offended anyone

From 28 Aug 2004...
"Weakness in Ridge created by Gaston seems more and more likely for
Frances to make that all to familiar turn over Central Bahamas...Floyd?
SC/NC once again lookout.....I think S. Florida once again proves that this is not part of Hurricane Alley.....NC/SC, Panhandle of Fl and Gulf Coast are so much more susceptible. A busy pattern like the 40's and 50's was highly unusual.........

We will not be getting Frances in S. FL"

Also..."I think we have a better chance to see snow (Jan 77') than we do a Hurricane landfall in Ft.Laud/Miami"


"Close call, but no hit at all for EC....Models keep Bending.....Trough will
be prevelant day 5.......Now putting money for it to go out to sea"

"I feel will leave an open door for a Northward turn over Central Bahamas."

"Looks like a Garbage Pit of activity over Bahamas Northward.....Like stated before this is the weakness that should be left behind to lift Frances out."

"By the way, Good luck Ga,SC,NC here comes another common event for
that area"

I bring it up to establish your history. All you have to do is search all your posts and you will see the history on this site of mets trying to talk to you about your forecast reasoning and you blowing them off.

Also...the NWS models you say you are basing your opinions on are showing -20C temps diving down into the central plains by next week. So...how do you get your forecast...when you say you are following the NWS models and not even they call for temps to be near normal (and they have been very wrong on temps the last two airmasses...way too warm).

Please make these two facts jive: 1) You call for near normal temps based on NWS guidance and 2) The NWS model guidance...and the NWS themselves are calling for much below normal.

SO...how do you get this forecast?

[Air Force Met]

Also...please answer my question on what synoptic pattern would be necessary to bring this airmass down. Thanks.

[Johnny]

AFM, I believe you just shut the door on this case. Class is dismissed. Thanks for your input on the upcoming cold. It is very informative.