California bad weather not nec. El Nino.....

[hurricanetrack]

Read this from the latest diagnostic disco from the CPC on El Nino:

"(Note: The recent pattern of heavy precipitation in California has been associated with 1) a persistent high-latitude blocking ridge in the vicinity of the Gulf of Alaska and an associated trough along the West Coast, and 2) a weaker than average jetstream across the central and eastern Pacific. These circulation features are not consistent with El Niño, which would favor a stronger-than-average jetstream over the central and eastern Pacific and a reduced tendency for blocking in the Gulf of Alaska. "

I would assume that one could also blame a strong Atlantic ridge for clogging everything up too. That high pressure area over the western Atlantic has not moved much at all. I mean we have YET to see a freezing temperature here in Wilmington, NC since just after Christmas! And Florida- they are DRY, DRY, DRY! Why? No fronts making it down there. I for one will be very interested to see how this pattern plays out over the course of the spring and early summer. Perhaps, and I am only speculating here, there is a chance that we could be stuck in a western Atlantic ridge pattern for a year or two (including last year). If there can be successive years with a deep trough over the western Atlantic, why not successive years with a strong ridge- like last year and NOW? I suppose time will tell.

[MWatkins]

Read this from the latest diagnostic disco from the CPC on El Nino:

"(Note: The recent pattern of heavy precipitation in California has been associated with 1) a persistent high-latitude blocking ridge in the vicinity of the Gulf of Alaska and an associated trough along the West Coast, and 2) a weaker than average jetstream across the central and eastern Pacific. These circulation features are not consistent with El Niño, which would favor a stronger-than-average jetstream over the central and eastern Pacific and a reduced tendency for blocking in the Gulf of Alaska. "

I would assume that one could also blame a strong Atlantic ridge for clogging everything up too. That high pressure area over the western Atlantic has not moved much at all. I mean we have YET to see a freezing temperature here in Wilmington, NC since just after Christmas! And Florida- they are DRY, DRY, DRY! Why? No fronts making it down there. I for one will be very interested to see how this pattern plays out over the course of the spring and early summer. Perhaps, and I am only speculating here, there is a chance that we could be stuck in a western Atlantic ridge pattern for a year or two (including last year). If there can be successive years with a deep trough over the western Atlantic, why not successive years with a strong ridge- like last year and NOW? I suppose time will tell.

I was wondering the same thing yesterday night. Seems like the overall pattern of strong east coast ridging with a persistent west coast trough has persisted through most of the winter...which would explain why the Central US is getting hammered over and over with winter precip....and the summer-time like pattern in the western Atlantic.

I'm not much of a teleconnections guy so I'll defer to someone who is better at global patterns than I am to see of it can be explained further.

MW

[Aslkahuna]

Yes, this pattern has been more like the PIneapple Express patterns with MJO connections that are more prominent in Niña years than Niño years. The contribution of the Niño would appear to be that the moisture axis is further south than is usual for such events. During Niño patterns the storms tend to ride a very strong energetc southern branch across the Pacific direct into SoCA.

Steve

[Guest]

Yes, this pattern has been more like the PIneapple Express patterns with MJO connections that are more prominent in Niña years than Niño years. The contribution of the Niño would appear to be that the moisture axis is further south than is usual for such events. During Niño patterns the storms tend to ride a very strong energetc southern branch across the Pacific direct into SoCA.

Steve

Once again, a very nice synoptic analysis.