NWS Peachtree City, GA: Flurries Sunday Night?

[JenyEliza]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 112046
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS THIS PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS...A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH A BURST OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. A FEW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE FAR NORTH BEFORE 10 PM AS THRESHOLD PE VALUES OF 0.8 INCHES LIFT NORTH. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE...EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN MORE AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT WORTH ANY ADVISORY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL REMAIN VERY MILD. WILL USE 1000/850 THICKNESSES FOR MAX TEMPS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR MIN TEMPS.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS/UKMET/ETA ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH. WITH SHOWALTER AND LI VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO 0C TO -2C...CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO 200 TO 500 J/KG...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MIDDLE GEORGIA. WILL GO 100 POPS MOST PLACES THURSDAY AS SEE NO REASON WITH PE VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.7 INCHES...THAT MOST PLACES WILL NOT GET AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES.

FRONT WILL EXIT AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...SO WILL DROP ALL POPS
FRIDAY AS CAA AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE WILL BE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS IN THE EXTENDED AS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS. BASED ON TELECONNECTION...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE POLAR VORTEX TO SET UP NEAR HUDSON BAY AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE EXACT PATTERN THAT EVOLVES AND HOW COLD IT GETS. BLEND OF TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORTS MORE OF THE MET/ECWMF/CANADIAN SOLUTION OVER THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED. THIS MEANS GFS MOS IS TOO WARM AND GFS IS TOO WARM AND WET. THERE COULD BE A WAVE THAT CLIP EASTERN GA WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT GREAT UNCERTAINTY...SO LEAVING OUT FOR NOW. WILL PLAY FOR AN INITIAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. A SECONDARY BLAST WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL ADD FLURRIES TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS CAA SQUEEZES OUT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF EXTENDED. ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM GFS/GFS MOS ALSO SUPPORTS KMET/ECWMF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS AS MEAN ENSEMBLE MOS IS COLDER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS. WILL GO WITH TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.