Glad I don't live in Montana!

[TexasSam]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 PM MST TUE JAN 11 2005

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
WITH THE STRONG WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

MTZ023>027-121100-
DAWSON-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WIBAUX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CIRCLE...GLENDIVE...SIDNEY..
TERRY AND WIBAUX
849 PM MST TUE JAN 11 2005

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
MST THURSDAY..

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF 40 TO 50 BELOW ZERO BY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR, WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME
LOST OR DISORIENTED, SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO
STAY INDOORS.

[TexasSam]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 905 PM MST TUE JAN 11 2005 .UPDATE...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE 00Z MODELS RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT TIMING WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN MORE THAT EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREA. WILL UPDATE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING RISING TEMPERATURES. ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO SE ZONES AFTER COORDINATING WITH BYZ. FORRESTER PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA... MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH DIFFERING START AND END TIMES. WILL BEGIN THE WARNING AT 6AM FOR ZONES NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND AT NOON FOR ZONES TO THE SOUTH. WARNING WILL GO UNTIL 9PM FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND UNTIL 4AM THURSDAY FOR EASTERN ZONES. TONIGHT...INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN RIVER VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT ZORTMAN MINE TO THE ZERO AT DUCK CREEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO AIRMASS DECOUPLING EARLY AND INVERSION COMING BACK THIS EVENING THEN BEING WASHED OUT AGAIN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEST WINDS INCREASE. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND BLOWING AND DRIFTING. MODELS INDICATING AIRMASS DOES NOT MIX MUCH ABOVE 800MB BUT WITH 850MB WINDS OF 30KTS TO 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES OF 15MB IN 6 HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO EXTREMELY STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BY 15C IN 6 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN ZONES DROPPING FIRST. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BE THE PROBLEM WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH THE WINDS. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BUT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. EBERT .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MADE A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY TO DROP TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ARCTIC AIR WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER. LATEST GFS SUGGESTING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME...BUT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TODAY. JAZ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD WITH COLDEST AIRMASS OF SEASON SPILLING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT ERODES THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD WITH SUBTLE BUT CRITICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACKS OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS CALVING FROM MAIN DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE VICINITY OF YUKON. CHIEF DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE MODEL STRENGTH OF POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY AND BAFFIN ISLAND...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN STRONGER THAN GFS. RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT EXTRAORDINARY INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE IN ECMWF/CAN...SO FAVORING GFS SOLUTION. WHILE QUITE SIMILAR...GFS TRACKS CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE ACROSS CANADIAN PROVINCES THENCE INTO NORTH DAKOTA RATHER THAN DISPLACEMENT FURTHER WEST IN IMMEDIATE LEE OF ROCKIES. ALSO STRUCK BY AIRMASS BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CONUS IN ECMWF/CAN...BUILDING CENTRAL PRESSURES BY 6MB IN OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBILITY BUT UNWILLING TO GO THIS ROUTE SO FAR IN FUTURE. RESULT OF GFS SOLUTION IS INCREASED CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING QUITE AS LIGHT...HENCE NOT QUITE AS COLD. BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS COLDER LONGER DUE TO EXPECTATION OF RESISTANCE TO MIXING OUT POOLS OF COLD AIR...HENCE SLOW TO WARM MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AS WESTERN RIDGE SHIFT EAST LATE IN PERIOD AND SPREADS GRADUAL WARMING EAST ACROSS STATE. WINDS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH FORECAST FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY NOTED. CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS ONE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WHILE ANOTHER BUILDS IN FROM NORTHWEST...BUT THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH UNDER PREVAILING SURFACE RIDGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WILL BROADBRUSH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL MODELS ABLE TO RESOLVE HIGH CENTERS. UNDER PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY THROUGH PERIOD. DNS

[mobilebay]

I can't imagine wind chills 40-50 below. That is BRUTAL.

[mobilebay]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 905 PM MST TUE JAN 11 2005 .UPDATE...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE 00Z MODELS RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT TIMING WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN MORE THAT EXPECTED IN VALLEY AREA. WILL UPDATE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING RISING TEMPERATURES. ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO SE ZONES AFTER COORDINATING WITH BYZ. FORRESTER PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA... MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WITH DIFFERING START AND END TIMES. WILL BEGIN THE WARNING AT 6AM FOR ZONES NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND AT NOON FOR ZONES TO THE SOUTH. WARNING WILL GO UNTIL 9PM FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND UNTIL 4AM THURSDAY FOR EASTERN ZONES. TONIGHT...INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN RIVER VALLEYS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT ZORTMAN MINE TO THE ZERO AT DUCK CREEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO AIRMASS DECOUPLING EARLY AND INVERSION COMING BACK THIS EVENING THEN BEING WASHED OUT AGAIN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEST WINDS INCREASE. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT BUT COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND BLOWING AND DRIFTING. MODELS INDICATING AIRMASS DOES NOT MIX MUCH ABOVE 800MB BUT WITH 850MB WINDS OF 30KTS TO 40KTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES OF 15MB IN 6 HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO EXTREMELY STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BY 15C IN 6 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN ZONES DROPPING FIRST. WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BE THE PROBLEM WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH THE WINDS. THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BUT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. EBERT .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MADE A COUPLE OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY TO DROP TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ARCTIC AIR WILL HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER. LATEST GFS SUGGESTING A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME...BUT LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TODAY. JAZ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD WITH COLDEST AIRMASS OF SEASON SPILLING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT ERODES THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD WITH SUBTLE BUT CRITICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACKS OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS CALVING FROM MAIN DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE VICINITY OF YUKON. CHIEF DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE MODEL STRENGTH OF POLAR VORTEX OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY AND BAFFIN ISLAND...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN STRONGER THAN GFS. RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT EXTRAORDINARY INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE IN ECMWF/CAN...SO FAVORING GFS SOLUTION. WHILE QUITE SIMILAR...GFS TRACKS CENTERS OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE ACROSS CANADIAN PROVINCES THENCE INTO NORTH DAKOTA RATHER THAN DISPLACEMENT FURTHER WEST IN IMMEDIATE LEE OF ROCKIES. ALSO STRUCK BY AIRMASS BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CONUS IN ECMWF/CAN...BUILDING CENTRAL PRESSURES BY 6MB IN OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...POSSIBILITY BUT UNWILLING TO GO THIS ROUTE SO FAR IN FUTURE. RESULT OF GFS SOLUTION IS INCREASED CLOUDS AND WINDS NOT GOING QUITE AS LIGHT...HENCE NOT QUITE AS COLD. BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPING VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS COLDER LONGER DUE TO EXPECTATION OF RESISTANCE TO MIXING OUT POOLS OF COLD AIR...HENCE SLOW TO WARM MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AS WESTERN RIDGE SHIFT EAST LATE IN PERIOD AND SPREADS GRADUAL WARMING EAST ACROSS STATE. WINDS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH FORECAST FOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY NOTED. CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS ONE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WHILE ANOTHER BUILDS IN FROM NORTHWEST...BUT THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH UNDER PREVAILING SURFACE RIDGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WILL BROADBRUSH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL MODELS ABLE TO RESOLVE HIGH CENTERS. UNDER PREVAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY THROUGH PERIOD. DNS

Does this qualify as a novel?

[TexasSam]

LOL! I was thinking about that when I cut and pasted it!

[mobilebay]

LOL! I was thinking about that when I cut and pasted it!

Yea. That maybe the Longest Discussion I have ever read.