Brief Note on February: Mid-Atlantic/Northeast

[donsutherland1]

As far as the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is concerned, odds favor above normal snowfall for February, particularly from the northern Mid-Atlantic northward. Briefly, the 1950-51 through 2003-04 average snowfall for February comes to the following for New York City and Washington, DC:

• New York: 7.7"; 16/54 (30%) years with 10" or more; 19/54 (35%) with 2" or less
• Washington, DC: 5.4"; 14/54 (26%) with 6" or more; 20/54 (37%) with 1" or less

In seasons where the ENSO regional anomalies were most common to those of December 2004:

NYC:
• Average snowfall: 10.8"
• 7/15 (47%) years saw 10" or more
• 3/15 (20%) years saw 2" or less

DCA:
• Average snowfall: 6.1"
• 4/15 (27%) years saw 6" or more
• 4/15 (27%) years saw 1" or less

Refining this to incorporate similarities in the October-December period:

NYC:
• Average snowfall: 13.9"
• 6/10 (60%) years saw 10" or more
• 2/10 (20%) years saw 2" or less

DCA:
• Average snowfall: 6.9"
• 3/10 (30%) years saw 6" or more
• 2/10 (20%) years saw 1" or less

Taking the larger ENSO sample and factoring in the QBO (seasons where the QBO averaged above -6 and below +6 which appears highly likely this season):

NYC:
• Average snowfall: 13.4"
• 3/5 (60%) years saw 10" or more
• 1/5 (20%) years saw 2" or less

DCA:
• Average snowfall: 10.7"
• 2/5 (40%) years saw 6" or more
• 1/5 (20%) years saw 1" or less

In short, I believe cities from Philadelphia northward will see above normal snowfall for February. Washington, DC could be closer to normal but there is reasonable potential for above normal snowfall even there. Overall, the current setup appears relatively more favorable for larger snowfalls than smaller ones against the overall 1950-51 through 2003-04 averages and probabilities noted at the beginning of this post even to Washington, DC.

[stormman]

good post don, but the question is you say above normal for february in philly, what about the overall total for the winter, I mean normal for feb is what 7 or 8 inches.

[donsutherland1]

Stormman,

My idea for Philly remains 20"-25" for the winter.

[stormman]

don, I hope your right, but the way things look now, we may be lucky to see 20-25 mm this winter, and we are running out of time.

[wxguy25]

don, I hope your right, but the way things look now, we may be lucky to see 20-25 mm this winter, and we are running out of time.

And will continue to not look good over the next 10 days w/ the PV going right back to its previous position over Greenland supporting the continuation of a strong +NAO.

The 12z GFS ensemble members went as far as indicating the PV leaving the western hemisphere. IF correct that would have HUGE implications on the remainder of the month and first week or two of FEB.

There is some good news though concerning the Atlantic SSTA which I discussed in another thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=55716

BTW, Nice job, Don.

[wxguy25]

Stormman,

My idea for Philly remains 20"-25" for the winter.

And, In some cases all it takes is JUST ONE storm to dump half or 3/4 of that in PHL.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Stormman,

My idea for Philly remains 20"-25" for the winter.

And, In some cases all it takes is JUST ONE storm to dump half or 3/4 of that in PHL.

Yes, 1983 prove that correct...

[Stephanie]

Somethimes that's ALL we get is one storm!

[JenyEliza]

Somethimes that's ALL we get is one storm!

...and then there are those like us in Atlanta who get none (or next to none).

[Stephanie]

Somethimes that's ALL we get is one storm!

...and then there are those like us in Atlanta who get none (or next to none).

((HUGS))

[JenyEliza]

Somethimes that's ALL we get is one storm!

...and then there are those like us in Atlanta who get none (or next to none).

((HUGS))

Thanks! I'm not completely throwing in the towel--yet. But, it's surely possible this could be a "no snow winter" for us. Again. Oh well...we'll survive, even if it turns out that way!

On the positive side, we've been treated to nearly two weeks of spring weather in the middle of winter (which has really served to cause "seasonal allergies--out of season" according to my kid's doctor).

That was his diagnosis for my daughter today. She's got a cough, runny nose, stuffy nose and is just generally miserable. "Seasonal Allergies, Out of Season" the official diagnosis! Gotta love his sense of humor!



Jeny

[donsutherland1]

Stormman,

Low snowfall through January does not necessarily preclude high seasonal snowfall. Likewise, high snowfall through January does not necessarily guarantee high seasonal snowfall.

I'll use NYC, as I have monthly data for there.

15" or more snow through January with less than 25" seasonal snowfall:

Code: Select all

Season   Snow
1987-88   19.1"
1908-09   20.3"
1897-98   21.1"
1926-27   22.3"
1964-65   24.4"
1976-77   24.5"
1990-91   24.9"


Less than 6" snow through January with more than 25" seasonal snowfall:

Code: Select all

Season   Snow
1895-96   46.3"
1913-14   40.5"
1955-56   33.5"
1925-26   32.4"
1923-24   27.5"
1982-83   27.2"


[donsutherland1]

Great point, Wxguy25.