Amarillo on board with arctic air...

[Johnny]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. NEXT ARCTIC EXPRESS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT HAVE BEEN STEADY OR HAVE ONLY
WARMED A FEW DEGREES TODAY ACROSS NEBRASKA. THE ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK OVERNIGHT. JUST WHERE IT ENDS
UP BY SUNRISE FRIDAY IS THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE. LOOKS LIKE
BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECASTER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FRONT
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AT NOON AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR (APPROACHING A DEPTH OF 850 MB/S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BACK
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING). DO NOT THINK THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE FALLING OR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. MODELS WANT TO BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ONTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH HELPS DEVELOP A LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WHICH
HOLDS THE FRONT UP. THINK THE COLD AIR WILL BE TOO DENSE FOR THIS.

[jeff]

Surprised nobody has posted the Corpus discussion yet.

I give it 10 minutes or so.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Jeff,

Check the other discussion on the Arctic fronts in Texas.



BTW, what's your take?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Corpus sees something and NWS Houston thinks we'll be warmer . Geesh, get on the same page.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005



LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXPECT COLDER AIR TO
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE CWFA DRG THE PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE SUNDAY. GFS PROGS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRATIFORM PCPN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS
PROGS UPPER DYNAMICS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWFA. WL FCST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING DRG THE PERIOD OF PCPN...YET CLOSE TO FREEZING OVR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FROZEN PCPN COULD REACH THE SURFACE OVR THE NRN
SECTIONS EARLY TUESDAY. HWR...WL NOT MENTION FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT
THIS TIME OWING TO UNCERTAINTY. MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF COOLER AIR

[GalvestonDuck]

NWS Corpus sees something and NWS Houston thinks we'll be warmer . Geesh, get on the same page.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005



LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXPECT COLDER AIR TO
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE CWFA DRG THE PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE SUNDAY. GFS PROGS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRATIFORM PCPN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS
PROGS UPPER DYNAMICS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWFA. WL FCST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING DRG THE PERIOD OF PCPN...YET CLOSE TO FREEZING OVR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FROZEN PCPN COULD REACH THE SURFACE OVR THE NRN
SECTIONS EARLY TUESDAY. HWR...WL NOT MENTION FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT
THIS TIME OWING TO UNCERTAINTY. MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF COOLER AIR

John Kerry wrote that?

[Brent]

NWS Corpus sees something and NWS Houston thinks we'll be warmer . Geesh, get on the same page.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005



LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXPECT COLDER AIR TO
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE CWFA DRG THE PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE SUNDAY. GFS PROGS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRATIFORM PCPN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS
PROGS UPPER DYNAMICS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWFA. WL FCST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING DRG THE PERIOD OF PCPN...YET CLOSE TO FREEZING OVR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FROZEN PCPN COULD REACH THE SURFACE OVR THE NRN
SECTIONS EARLY TUESDAY. HWR...WL NOT MENTION FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT
THIS TIME OWING TO UNCERTAINTY. MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF COOLER AIR

John Kerry wrote that?

[Portastorm]

Clearly there is little if any coordination today between the WSFOs in Texas. Corpus mentions possibility of frozen precip and stratiform precip and Houston and Austin say pops nil. Fort Worth says modified arctic air, Amarillo and Midland/Odessa say great potential for temp bust tomorrow and beyond due to underforecasting of models.

Go figure!

It is a very challenging pattern for the professionals, no doubt!

[Air Force Met]

Clearly there is little if any coordination today between the WSFOs in Texas. Corpus mentions possibility of frozen precip and stratiform precip and Houston and Austin say pops nil. Fort Worth says modified arctic air, Amarillo and Midland/Odessa say great potential for temp bust tomorrow and beyond due to underforecasting of models.

Go figure!

It is a very challenging pattern for the professionals, no doubt!

Yeah...it is certainly a challenge...especially when you can't trust the models...not just because of their normal problems with arctic air...but because of their terrible inconsistancies from run to run with this airmass in particular.

And to top it all off...we got amatuers forecasting like pros using the 6-10 day temp prog chart issued by the NWS. Sorry Burn1...I couldn't restist...it's just too funny...and as had been proven now by the brutally cold air into the central plains...too wrong.

That's the thing about arctic air...you never really know what it wants to do. Somtimes it likes staying stuck in the mountain valleys of Alaska...only to dribble out chunks here and there.

BTW...it now looks like the pressure is over 1055mb according to the obs.

[Burn1]

LOL......I can take it....Besides that's the 6 to 10

Again, my focus was It was not getting as far south as Gulf Coast....
So I guess I am 75/25, or 50/50...

Come down to S. FL where we don't even have a chance of seeing arctic
air, which is fine with me....That is why I live here?? Snow Boarding in
Steamboat next month is my annual trek to the Cold and Snow.

I guess for me being the amateur prog it's like I am trying to stump the experts(lol) I guess I will have to scan every thread to find shots at me!!
It's all in good fun

[Air Force Met]

The point is...days ago when you were using the 6-10 to justify what you were saying...well...that valid period is this weekend and early next week....and looking back...your focus was the arctic air not coming down at all...remember "Should see some below normal temps by end of next week in Northern Plains [this week...in other words] and Desert SW, but not on the extreme side Again, rest of country should see normal to above normal temps through Jan 22..." and "Should see a moderate cool down mid to end of next week, but then it is back to above avg to avg temps"...and "The big question is whether enough cold air will be in place. 15 - 20th still calling for above
avg temps ..."

You posted those back on the 6th and 7th. So...what I am trying to say is that you have been basing these forecasts of above normal temps apparently on the 6-10 day outlook. So...6-10 days from the 7th puts us in the 13th-17th of January time frame. If you were basing your above normal temps forecast for most of the central plains on those charts...well...you can see that we are now in that time frame and they are well below normal.

I actually may be headed to Florida (Jax area) next week...still haven't decided yet...got a military trip but not really looking forward to going....may try to get out of it

[*Chris*]

NWS Corpus sees something and NWS Houston thinks we'll be warmer . Geesh, get on the same page.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005



LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXPECT COLDER AIR TO
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE CWFA DRG THE PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE SUNDAY. GFS PROGS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRATIFORM PCPN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS
PROGS UPPER DYNAMICS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWFA. WL FCST TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING DRG THE PERIOD OF PCPN...YET CLOSE TO FREEZING OVR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING...SOME FROZEN PCPN COULD REACH THE SURFACE OVR THE NRN
SECTIONS EARLY TUESDAY. HWR...WL NOT MENTION FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT
THIS TIME OWING TO UNCERTAINTY. MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF COOLER AIR

John Kerry wrote that?

[jeff]

Will see glancing blows in TX, except for maybe Monday when a stornger surge is possible. It will be cold by TX standards over N TX Monday, but nothing exception. Main brunt will head toward the E and SE US. Temps will run around 5 degrees below climo on highs on 5-8 for lows (colder on Monday and Tuesday).

[Portastorm]

Will see glancing blows in TX, except for maybe Monday when a stornger surge is possible. It will be cold by TX standards over N TX Monday, but nothing exception. Main brunt will head toward the E and SE US. Temps will run around 5 degrees below climo on highs on 5-8 for lows (colder on Monday and Tuesday).

Profoundly disappointing ....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Yep, disappointing! But it's still better than the 80's we have had the past few days.

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't think we will reach our forecasted high for today, right now it's still 35 degrees at 9:05am with a N wind at 7mph WC of 32.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high around 54. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

[Burn1]

Hey Air Force Met......My father flew F-86's and F-100's in the AF back in the 50's.........Great plane for it's time

[vbhoutex]

Will see glancing blows in TX, except for maybe Monday when a stornger surge is possible. It will be cold by TX standards over N TX Monday, but nothing exception. Main brunt will head toward the E and SE US. Temps will run around 5 degrees below climo on highs on 5-8 for lows (colder on Monday and Tuesday).

I would guess part of the equation here is how big a chunk breaks off and heads South. Obviously the huge Arctic pool we see in Alaska is not coming down at one time as was originally thought.

[PTrackerLA]

At this time it looks like we'll be lucky to get below freezing over the next week. Maybe a few frosty mornings but thats about it. The cold air will be bypassing us to the east and then a warm up will occur starting mid week. I'm pretty sure we've seen the worst cold we'll see (Christmas) for this year. After all when you don't get above freezing for two days around here thats quite rare!

[gboudx]

I don't think we will reach our forecasted high for today, right now it's still 35 degrees at 9:05am with a N wind at 7mph WC of 32.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high around 54. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

I don't know CC. It's just after 11am and it's now 44 degrees. Looks like 54 is not out of reach.

Edit: Looks like high clouds are settling in. That would keep the temps down, which it appears to be doing. Almost 1pm and 47.

[Kelarie]

So is the big question still, will the artic air make its way down into Texas or not? Was reading the different discussions out of NWS offices (Lubbock, Midland, and Amarillo) and they seem to think so, but the local mets don't. Or that was the way I read the discussions. Any thoughts??

Kel