Updated Ideas on the clipper/east coast event

[wxguy25]

How things COULD turn out.

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/clipper2.gif

[yoda]

I would like that... can't wait to see what the 0z run hold...

[DLI2k5]

Thanks for the insight WX! Doesn't look all that impressive for my area now, but who knows things often change, hopefully for the better!

[wxguy25]

Thanks for the insight WX! Doesn't look all that impressive for my area now, but who knows things often change, hopefully for the better!

Yes. I'm sorry to say but it's not looking great for SC. This looks like a problem for Mainly NC to coastal New England. As it stands right now. Wrap around snows are possible in your area as the SLP bombs but not much more than that.

[sertorius]

wxguy25:

Thanks again for the discussion-awesome as usuall. I'm really sorry to bother you but I have one question: am I reading the 12z euro correctly: it has my area with a fairly good fetch of moisture and the 850 temps. at minus 6 on Saturday-that is what I am reading from it. I'm not talking anything huge, but for Lawrence, a 3 inch snow is snow advisory criteria. I just wanted to make sure I'm reading it correctly or have I just been posting the last 3 hours with everyone laughing at me and looking like a totall fool. Thanks in advance. (By the way, if I am reading it corectly, I don't nec. buy it-I just wonder if I am reading it correctly.)

[stormman]

you have a very sharp cutoff from 1 to 3, im in ne philly, and basically according to your map, im in the 3, but just 20 miles to my south is the 4, and just 35 or 40 miles north is the 1.

[Wnghs2007]

Thanks for the insight WX! Doesn't look all that impressive for my area now, but who knows things often change, hopefully for the better!

Yes. I'm sorry to say but it's not looking great for SC. This looks like a problem for Mainly NC to coastal New England. As it stands right now. Wrap around snows are possible in your area as the SLP bombs but not much more than that.

Check out my thread on Ralieghwx Euro Maps....B E A UTIFUL.

Well, let me add to the flavor...with 100 rh and moisture influx from the gulf with the first low before transfer to the coast the 850 temperature is between 2-4 celcius...Closer to around 2.5 here, which is very common with our icestorms around here. With no apparent WAA and very nice 1038 high setting up and wedging down the eastern apps, which look relativley strong on the Euro. Which would put surface temps right where they need for an ice storm. We should have some sort of Isoptrophic lift.

And remember this far out models do NOT handle Cadding well at ALL.

Then precip moves out and temps fall a good bit in the upper atmosphere and at the surface. So when the wraparound band thats in ALabama on the DAY 6 chart I posted we could see wrap around snow.

This looks to be the Northern Deep Souths best chance for winter wx, this whole winter.

[Brent]

I'll be on the western fringe of Zone 3(Heavy Snow) in Gatlinburg

All I really want is to see some falling and get an inch or two!!

[Garrettj]

nicely done wx, i appreciate your predictions, lets hope richmond VA gets hit HARD, thanks man, nice post

[DS]

I definetly agree with the overall picture you made wxman, but I would have to say that for the NE cities to get hit, the amplitude of the general pattern would have to really go wild. Although the pattern is definetly going to an amplified one, it is still moderately progressive (just look at the next several clippers projected paths). At this point, it doesn't seem like the low will bomb out and shoot NE. Rather, it would probably go ENE and narrowly miss the big cities. Therefore, I'm am guessing that the heaviest snow will be in east central virginia, with a good CAD ice event for west SC.

[Anonymous]

FINALLY philly is in the picture now!! BTW nice maps wxguy

[Stephanie]

#4 - YESSSSS!!!

[Guest]

You have me wondering what made you decide to go with what you did on this update?

I ask because i have yet to see one model that shows a track that far to the nw with the low comming in? more so with the precip? Most models just about show the heaviest QPF over or alot Closer to Chicago then what you say? Chicago looks at atleast see a moderate snowevent out of this by what just about all the models say.

EC and GFS both show alot of QPF thru Chicago and for that matter southern MI.

Yeah i may have a slight biased here for obvious reasons but you nor i can argue the models at this point. And thats why i ask. Perhaps you see something differently.

[Guest]

Oh btw not sure if you have seen yet but the Clipper headed down for the Lakes tomorrow thats supposed to be our future 50/50 low is looking stronger and stronger on each of the model runs and as well the ETA is now starting to pick up on yet another clipper like system for Late Wed/Thurs.


This could have huge implications on the weekend eastcoast event imo.

[Stormsfury]

I think South Carolina has a much bigger problem than what is being shown on the modeling at this time. Even the 18z GFS is showing quite a bit of AG, and IMHO, the AG and thusly, so will the primary SFC low be further south. Also, there will likely be another s/w in the SBJ, that will also spawn another discrete SFC low (possibly a lee side spin-up (or a mesoscale low), and then all this energy HAS to transfer to the baroclinicity offshore of the Carolinas ...

I believe that the "wedge" will end up much further south than the current depictions, and thus, brings everything just a bit south.

On the Day 5 fields from the 12z ECMWF, the face value shows a pre-frontal (warm front) bringing precip across South Carolina, while MOST of South Carolina's 850mb temperatures are 2º or colder ...

ECMWF Day 5 Southeast View 12z 01/17/05 - Not valid after about 5 am 1/18/05 ...

SF

[krysof]

I hope the storm has several surface lows riding along a front giving the most of the coast heavy snow or so. I know its farfetche'd but I guess anything could happen.

[Anonymous]

I live in Woodbridge, NE Virginia, which just happens to be located in the center of that swath of heavy snow.

I must say it has been interesting following the model runs, but this is still a few days out so I think everyone living in the Mid Atlantic region should relax and watch the evolution of this potential snowstorm.


-Jeb

[yoda]

I live in Woodbridge, NE Virginia, which just happens to be located in the center of that swath of heavy snow.

I must say it has been interesting following the model runs, but this is still a few days out so I think everyone living in the Mid Atlantic region should relax and watch the evolution of this potential snowstorm.


-Jeb

Agree Jeb. I can't wait to see what the new Euro says for us...

[jimvb]

I looked at the 06Z GFS and found that it now shows the storm (the "L") passing north of where it was going to be, more like Maryland than off the SC coast. Further, the 0 line on the 6 hour map has moved north, indicating rain for Virginia, followed by snow. This is a dramatic change from previous runs which show it moving south and forming offshore. Will this trend continue, and is GFS at odds with the other models about this?

[JaxBill]

It looks like Philadelphia would be in the Area 3 just in time for Sunday's playoff game(3 PM).

How heavy would you think the snow would be there?