The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 20 January 2005 at 0600Z.
Tropical Cyclone Daren (11S) (20/0600Z)
Position: 16.0S 71.9E (600 mi S of Diego Garcia)
Movement: WSW at 14 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 997 mb / 29.44"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Daren will continue moving WSW along the northern side of a mid-level ridge. The vertical shear and poleward outflow will counteract each other, allowing Daren to maintain it’s present intensity of 40 mph throughout the next two days. Mauritius and La Reunion will have to monitor the progress of this system of the next few days.
Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (20/0600Z)
Position: 12.6S 45.4E (160 mi ENE of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: WSW at 12 mph
Winds: 50 mph
Pressure: 991 mb / 29.26"
Dvorak Est: 3.5/3.5
TC Ernest has rapidly developed thanks to great outflow setting up. In addition, water temperatures have slightly increased. Satellite imagery has indicated that an eye is developing. Further development is favorable, as low-level shear remains low while outflow remains good. Currently, the forecast track has Ernest moving through the Mozambique Channel, but Mozambique and Madagascar should monitor the progress of this system.
Invest (98P) (20/0000Z)
Position: 11.0S 143.0E (300 mi WNW of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea)
Movement: **
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/1.0
A slight increase in convection has occurred with this wave. Some descent divergence aloft is helping this increase, but moderate shear will keep things limited. Regardless, the JTWC maintains this area as “fair” and those in Papua New Guinea, eastern Indonesia, and the Cape York Peninsula of Australia will have to monitor the progress of this wave.
Worldwide Tropical Update: 20 Jaunary 2005
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senorpepr
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Worldwide Tropical Update: 20 Jaunary 2005
Last edited by senorpepr on Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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senorpepr
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The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 20 January 2005 at 1200Z.
Tropical Cyclone Daren (11S) (20/1200Z)
Position: 16.1S 70.6E (620 mi S of Diego Garcia)
Movement: WSW at 14 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 997 mb / 29.44"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Daren will continue moving WSW along the northern side of a mid-level ridge. The vertical shear and poleward outflow will counteract each other, allowing Daren to maintain it’s present intensity of 40 mph throughout the next two days. Mauritius and La Reunion will have to monitor the progress of this system of the next few days.
Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (20/1200Z)
Position: 13.5S 44.2E (150 mi ENE of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: WSW at 12 mph
Winds: 65 mph
Pressure: 984 mb / 29.06"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Ernest has rapidly developed thanks to great outflow setting up. In addition, water temperatures have slightly increased. Satellite imagery has indicated that an eye is developing. Further development is favorable, as low-level shear remains low while outflow remains good. Currently, the forecast track has Ernest moving through the Mozambique Channel, but Mozambique and Madagascar should monitor the progress of this system.
Invest (98P) (20/1200Z)
Position: 12.7S 141.2E (345 mi N of Normanton, Australia)
Movement: **
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/1.0
A slight increase in convection has occurred with this wave. Some descent divergence aloft is helping this increase, but moderate shear will keep things limited. Regardless, the JTWC maintains this area as “fair” and those along the Cape York Peninsula of Australia will have to monitor the progress of this wave.
Tropical Cyclone Daren (11S) (20/1200Z)
Position: 16.1S 70.6E (620 mi S of Diego Garcia)
Movement: WSW at 14 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 997 mb / 29.44"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Daren will continue moving WSW along the northern side of a mid-level ridge. The vertical shear and poleward outflow will counteract each other, allowing Daren to maintain it’s present intensity of 40 mph throughout the next two days. Mauritius and La Reunion will have to monitor the progress of this system of the next few days.
Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (20/1200Z)
Position: 13.5S 44.2E (150 mi ENE of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: WSW at 12 mph
Winds: 65 mph
Pressure: 984 mb / 29.06"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Ernest has rapidly developed thanks to great outflow setting up. In addition, water temperatures have slightly increased. Satellite imagery has indicated that an eye is developing. Further development is favorable, as low-level shear remains low while outflow remains good. Currently, the forecast track has Ernest moving through the Mozambique Channel, but Mozambique and Madagascar should monitor the progress of this system.
Invest (98P) (20/1200Z)
Position: 12.7S 141.2E (345 mi N of Normanton, Australia)
Movement: **
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/1.0
A slight increase in convection has occurred with this wave. Some descent divergence aloft is helping this increase, but moderate shear will keep things limited. Regardless, the JTWC maintains this area as “fair” and those along the Cape York Peninsula of Australia will have to monitor the progress of this wave.
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senorpepr
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The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 20 January 2005 at 1800Z.
Tropical Cyclone Daren (11S) (20/1800Z) FINAL
Position: 16.2S 69.2E (650 mi S of Diego Garcia)
Movement: W at 14 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Daren’s associated convection is pulling away from the low-level circulation, leaving an exposed north. JTWC has issued their final advisory on Daren.
Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (20/1800Z)
Position: 14.2S 43.3E (185 mi SE of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: SW at 12 mph
Winds: 75 mph
Pressure: 976 mb / 28.82"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Ernest has rapidly developed thanks to great outflow setting up. In addition, water temperatures have continued to increase. As upper-level divergence remains high and shear is low, continued to development is very likely. Expect Ernest to reach near 100mph in 24 hours. Currently, the forecast track has Ernest moving through the Mozambique Channel, but Mozambique and Madagascar should monitor the progress of this system.
Invest (98P) (20/1200Z)
Position: 12.7S 141.2E (345 mi N of Normanton, Australia)
Movement: **
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/1.0
A slight increase in convection has occurred with this wave. Some descent divergence aloft is helping this increase, but moderate shear will keep things limited. Regardless, the JTWC maintains this area as “fair” and those along the Cape York Peninsula of Australia will have to monitor the progress of this wave.
Tropical Cyclone Daren (11S) (20/1800Z) FINAL
Position: 16.2S 69.2E (650 mi S of Diego Garcia)
Movement: W at 14 mph
Winds: 30 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Daren’s associated convection is pulling away from the low-level circulation, leaving an exposed north. JTWC has issued their final advisory on Daren.
Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) (20/1800Z)
Position: 14.2S 43.3E (185 mi SE of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: SW at 12 mph
Winds: 75 mph
Pressure: 976 mb / 28.82"
Dvorak Est: 2.0/3.0
TC Ernest has rapidly developed thanks to great outflow setting up. In addition, water temperatures have continued to increase. As upper-level divergence remains high and shear is low, continued to development is very likely. Expect Ernest to reach near 100mph in 24 hours. Currently, the forecast track has Ernest moving through the Mozambique Channel, but Mozambique and Madagascar should monitor the progress of this system.
Invest (98P) (20/1200Z)
Position: 12.7S 141.2E (345 mi N of Normanton, Australia)
Movement: **
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/1.0
A slight increase in convection has occurred with this wave. Some descent divergence aloft is helping this increase, but moderate shear will keep things limited. Regardless, the JTWC maintains this area as “fair” and those along the Cape York Peninsula of Australia will have to monitor the progress of this wave.
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