Best Advice with this storm

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SnowGod
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:22 pm

Best Advice with this storm

#1 Postby SnowGod » Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:37 pm

1)Lets not over do it. The trend while we like it or not, has been for a weaker storm. If you think this will be a HECS, forget it. It is no blockbuster. At best, I see this being a MECS and a core of 8-12 inches from the lower Great Lakes to the East Coast with a 12-18 core east of the Apps(maybe small 12+ band West of the Apps as well). Worst case is if the storm is to fast and only puts down 4-8 inches as whole through the East with 10 inch spots.
2)Ignore the GFS. It sucks
3)Tame the Eta. I would nudge the ETA's heavy snowfall further south into the lower great lakes(instead of the central lakes as it shows now). I see a core of 4-8 inches through the lower lakes and 6-12 east of the apps with lollipops of 10-12 inches in the lakes and 12-15 inches east of the Apps). If the ETA shows a explosion of moisture that doesn't look realistic along the East Coast, cut back its totals. Its bias to overdo it along the coast is quite infamous.
4)RIP DC and maybe Philly for major snow. DC looks to move into quite a bit of Rain and freezing rain in this storm. Philly looks like its snowfall could be cut back as well with ZR. More southern run could change it and effect other major centers like Boston(with much less snow).

My view: To be frank, I am disappointed. What the models showed in the 120-144 for a HECS storm for Upper Ohio Valley and East Coast appear dead. At best, this can be a good storm, but not a great one and a real letdown(worst case) is very possible for alot of people East of the Mississipi.
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