NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. UPDATE FRIDAY JAN 21, 2005 2PM

[Anonymous]

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. UPDATE FRIDAY JAN 21, 2005 2PM

by Jeff Berardelli at http://cbsnewyork.com/jeffberardelli/

All the information is coming together for a major snowfall around our area. A vigorous area of low pressure is dropping into the Midwest. This will dive southward into the Ohio Valley. Then it will redevelop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night. It will pull NE Sunday. Snow will develop mid day Saturday and become heavy at times by evening. Snow will be heavy at times Saturday evening. The snow should wind down some overnight Saturday and some areas may even get a short break. As the coastal low winds up bands of snow will form parallel to the coast. These bands will produce light to moderate snow Sunday morning. The snow bands will gradually wind down and push east during the morning. The snow will end first from the City westward and then in the early afternoon over eastern LI.

Here's what I think we will see in total snowfall. This might be on the conservative side. If this ends up being the case I will increase totals tomorrow. 5-10" in the Upper Hudson valley. 8-14" in the mid Hudson Valley and Northern NJ. 10-16" in and around the City and Central NJ. 12-20" is possible further east on LI and perhaps along the New Jersey coast. There is the chance that the NJ coast could mix with sleet at times Saturday night. Winds will gradually increase to 25-35 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures during the storm will range from the teens to the mid 20s. The combination of cold temps, gusty winds and heavy snow will make for near blizzard conditions.

For you weather enthusiats here's how I arrived at my totals. The ETA is giving the area anywhere from .75" far north to 1.75" liquid out on eastern LI. The AVN is drier. It gives the area from .5" north to 1" south and east. Taking an average of these leads me to a QPF around 1.00" with less north and more south and east. Ratios will average around 15 to 1 with higher ratios north and slightly lower along the NJ coast.

The latest 18z ETA gives most of my viewing area 1.75" liquid and LI over 2". With ratios above 10 to 1 you can do the math. I don't want to raise my totals yet. It is just too early to go any higher then I have.

Jeff