18Z NAM says 2-2.5" sleet for Atlanta to AL border

[LarryWx]

I just looked at the just released 18Z NAM (formerly called eta). The Accuwx accumulated snowcover maps show 2"-2.5" of sleet accumulation from the Atlanta area westward along I-20 to just barely inside eastern AL. This accumulates between 1AM and 1PM on Saturday. It also has freezing rain occurring for the following 12 hours in an area near and to the NE of Atlanta in N GA. Based on these maps, the entire event could easily be 18-24 hours in duration for Atlanta and may be as much (or more??) a sleet event vs. a freezing rain event (good news for Jeny to have more sleet and less ice I assume). About 1/2" of QPF is being generated, which would be a decent wintry event for the area but nothing too severe. Some of that would be virga as the atmosphere moistens (unless the model takes that into account already).

[DLI2k5]

Insightful as ever Larry! Thanks for the post! What's the situation looking like for the Carolinas as far as the NAM is going right now? Do you something along the lines of snow/sleet/freezing rain transitioning?

[GAStorm]

I just looked at the just released 18Z NAM (formerly called eta). The Accuwx accumulated snowcover maps show 2"-2.5" of sleet accumulation from the Atlanta area westward along I-20 to just barely inside eastern AL. This accumulates between 1AM and 1PM on Saturday. It also has freezing rain occurring for the following 12 hours in an area near and to the NE of Atlanta in N GA. Based on these maps, the entire event could easily be 18-24 hours in duration for Atlanta and may be as much (or more??) a sleet event vs. a freezing rain event (good news for Jeny to have more sleet and less ice I assume). About 1/2" of QPF is being generated, which would be a decent wintry event for the area but nothing too severe. Some of that would be virga as the atmosphere moistens (unless the model takes that into account already).

Thanks for the info Larry! I hope the trend for more sleet continues. We don't need the freezing rain!

[JenyEliza]

Well, if it can't be all snow--at least it's looking more like sleet than frozen rain (is that right?) Sleet accumulations don't do as big a number on trees as does freezing rain.

I can handle 18-24 hours of sleetish type weather. I'll just have to cancel my daughter's slumber party for Saturday night (today is her 10th birthday). We'll shoot for the following weekend (which was her twin brother's weekend -- so he'll get the following weekend for his birthday). I'm sure the kids won't mind stretching their celebrations out over three weeks, will they?

Speaking of birthday celebrations...we're heading out shortly for our family birthday dinner. TEN years. Where did the time go?

Keep thoughts for SNOW...if not snow, then SLEET...or even just cold rain, but please, please no freezing rain.

Thanks for the update Larry! I appreciate it.

Jeny

[JenyEliza]

I just looked at the just released 18Z NAM (formerly called eta). The Accuwx accumulated snowcover maps show 2"-2.5" of sleet accumulation from the Atlanta area westward along I-20 to just barely inside eastern AL. This accumulates between 1AM and 1PM on Saturday. It also has freezing rain occurring for the following 12 hours in an area near and to the NE of Atlanta in N GA. Based on these maps, the entire event could easily be 18-24 hours in duration for Atlanta and may be as much (or more??) a sleet event vs. a freezing rain event (good news for Jeny to have more sleet and less ice I assume). About 1/2" of QPF is being generated, which would be a decent wintry event for the area but nothing too severe. Some of that would be virga as the atmosphere moistens (unless the model takes that into account already).

Thanks for the info Larry! I hope the trend for more sleet continues. We don't need the freezing rain!

AMEN to that, GAStorm!!!

[GAStorm]

Looks like the NWS is uncertain of what may happen. At least they admit it!

Special Weather Statement
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EST WED JAN 26 2005


GAZ006>009-013>016-021>025-027-034>039-270900-
BANKS-BARROW-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-DAWSON-FANNIN-FORSYTH-GILMER-GWINNETT-
HALL-JACKSON-LUMPKIN-MADISON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PICKENS-TOWNS-UNION-
WHITE-WILKES-
307 PM EST WED JAN 26 2005

...WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

COLD AIR SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MEET ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT
ESPECIALLY ON EXPOSED OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND POWERLINES. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME IS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
ATLANTA.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS EVENT.
RESIDENTS PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA.

[JenyEliza]

Here we go.....

PRAY for SNOW!!! No freezing rain....

[JenyEliza]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 262225
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 PM EST WED JAN 26 2005

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA...VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SETTING UP EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND A WEDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS EAST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS FREEZING RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTIES ARISE FROM HOW SOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...STRENGTH OF WEDGE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. PAST HISTORY INDICATES THAT A LOT OF MOISTURE IS NOT NECESSARY FOR LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN THESE SITUATIONS...AND IF WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
LONGER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING AND FREEZING RAIN MAY NOT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS QUICKLY. WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM CURRENT FORECAST...AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AREA WESTWARD. WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7.

[JenyEliza]

From NWS Birmingham, AL:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 PM CST WED JAN 26 2005

ALZ017>021-024>029-035>038-047-271000-
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-JEFFERSON-LEE-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
340 PM CST WED JAN 26 2005

...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A LARGE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND COLDER AIR DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL LIKELY START TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT THE SAME TIME...AND RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF ALABAMA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ON CONTACT WHEN IT REACHES THE GROUND.

AT THIS TIME...THE AREAS WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE THE EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF ALABAMA...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ICE COULD BE EXPERIENCED AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS ONEONTA...BIRMINGHAM...CLANTON...ALEXANDER CITY...AND
AUBURN.

KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING BOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR...AND THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. EVERYONE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE...AND FREQUENTLY CHECK FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT.

$$

61

[Brent]

Here we go.....

PRAY for SNOW!!! No freezing rain....

Won't be snow IMO. I'm leaning towards a minor icing event Late Friday and Very Early Saturday.

[JenyEliza]

Here we go.....

PRAY for SNOW!!! No freezing rain....

Won't be snow IMO. I'm leaning towards a minor icing event Late Friday and Very Early Saturday.

That's what I'm afraid of. Sleet, I can handle. Snow, I can handle. But ice encrusted frozen pine trees and power lines, I (and everyone else) cannot handle.

Jeny

PS. Kids and I did the snow dance tonight...complete with inside-out PJ's. My colleagues at work from the NE said this works for them, maybe it'll work down here too.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 AM CST THU JAN 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ALABAMA. AT THE SAME TIME...
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS INTO
ALABAMA FROM GEORGIA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT MOVING OVER
COLDER AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN AND CLOSE TO
THE WATCH AREA.

ALZ017>021-026>029-272200-
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-
528 AM CST THU JAN 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH. THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF
A FREEZING RAIN EVENT. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF RAIN MIXED WITH
SLEET...WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FRIDAY EVENING AS THE RAIN FALLS
INTO RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS...CALLED
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
FREEZING MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY MORNING...MEANING ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL FREEZE
ON IMPACT.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WATCH AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.

THERE COULD BE CHANGES IN THE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...
SO COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED OR REMOVED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

[Brent]

FFC:

LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER FOR FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORNING WITH THE FREEZING RAIN FOR N GA. THERE IS STILL A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BUT THAT CAN BE WORKED OUT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT TO LIKELY
FOR 06Z FRI AND CONTINUING THE HIGHER POPS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN TO INCLUDE ALL OF N GA
NORTH OF AND INCLUDING THE ATLANTA AREA.

[JenyEliza]

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1149 AM EST THU JAN 27 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-280900-BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DOUGLAS-FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HEARD-HENRY-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JONES-LAMAR-
LUMPKIN-MADISON-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MORGAN-MURRAY-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-TALIAFERRO-TOWNS-TROUP-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILKES
-1149 AM EST THU JAN 27 2005

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAYAFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WEST POINT TO THOMASTON TO SANDERSVILLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD CANADIAN AIR SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WINTER WEATHER. LATER DEVELOPMENTS...SUCH AS THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...WILL DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

JD/SN