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000
FXUS62 KFFC 262225
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 PM EST WED JAN 26 2005
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA...VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY. LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SETTING UP EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND A WEDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS EAST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS FREEZING RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR SATURDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTIES ARISE FROM HOW SOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...STRENGTH OF WEDGE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. PAST HISTORY INDICATES THAT A LOT OF MOISTURE IS NOT NECESSARY FOR LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN THESE SITUATIONS...AND IF WEDGE IS STRONGER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
LONGER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING AND FREEZING RAIN MAY NOT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS QUICKLY. WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM CURRENT FORECAST...AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AREA WESTWARD. WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA DAY 7.
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