Growing Threat of February 9-11 Winter Storm

[donsutherland1]

The computer guidance is now moving toward consensus that a winter storm will likely affect parts of the Northeast and even northern Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. With the exception of central New York State and Interior/Northern New England, most places in the aforementioned area will likely see rain transition to accumulating snow.

Right now, areas at greatest risk of at least an appreciable snowfall (4" or more) are such cities as Boston, Danbury, Hartford, Providence, and Worcester. The potential for significant snow of 6" or more exists in this region.

Cities such as Bridgeport, New York City, and White Plains will likely see accumulations that could reach several inches. Even Newark and Philadelphia face some chance of seeing some accumulating snow, though this is not ensured.

Tomorrow, probably after the 12z runs, I'll offer initial estimates.

[Dave C]

This also seems to be a wetter snow potential with no strong cold high anchored north during event. The early am NWS discusson mentions a track just outside benchmark(south)... a good track for SE Mass with less changeover or mix chances except early in storm when colder air is feeding in from north. We actually have some bare spots in our snow cover though generally about 8-12 inches hard pack remains.

[donsutherland1]

Per the data through 12z and incorporating the "disappointing" GFS into the mix, I believe that it appears highly likely that the upcoming storm will prove a big-ticket item in parts of New England. However, there should also be some accumulations of snow at the end of the storm across New York City and Newark. But the storm's focus should be across interior New England from Boston westward to Worcester (probably within 50 miles of that line).

My initial estimates are as follows:

Boston: 8"-14"
Burlington: 2"-5"
Danbury: 2"-5"
Hartford: 4"-10"
New York City: 1"-3"
Newark: 2" or less
Philadelphia: Less than 1"
Poughkeepsie: 2"-5"
Providence: 4"-10"
White Plains: 2"-4"
Worcester: 8"-16"

One thing that has been seen in the model guidance over the past few days is a lack of complete consensus. In each of the runs, there has been at least one outlier with very low totals and not always the same model. Consequently, I'm factoring in a degree of uncertainty and this translates into totals that might be on the low-end in some places and large ranges for Providence and Hartford.

These are my initial estimates and I could update them later if the situation warrants it.

[Anonymous]

Don,

You may as well include these three cities...

BWI - rain
DCA - rain
Rich - rain

[Andy_L]

Hey guys...can someone tell me what this storm is going to do AFTER leaving the Boston area? specifically, will it have a major impact on Nova Scotia??

Thanks so much

Andrew

[donsutherland1]

Andy_L,

The western half of Nova Scotia will likely experience a full-scale blizzard. Widespread accumulations of 40 cm-60 cm with locally 75 cm appear possible in that region.

[skywatcher]

ANd D.C.. . . .. . . . . . . . .

[Andy_L]

locally 75?!?!?! yikessssss i have a friend in Digby. Sounds like she might get buried. whats the timeline for Nova Scotia snow Don????

[donsutherland1]

Andy,

Those totals might need to be pushed farther to the west e.g., to New Brunswick, given the latest developments in the modeling. Friday into Saturday should see the bulk of the storm.

[donsutherland1]

All through last night and this morning, the computer guidance has maintained a cruel (for southern and eastern New England) and unrelenting march to north and west. Consequently, some significant changes are in order for the estimates.

My latest estimates are:

Albany: 7"-14"
Boston: 2"-5"
Burlington: 10"-18"
Danbury: 1"-2"
Hartford: 3"-6"
New York City: Less than 1"
Newark: Less than 1"
Philadelphia: Coating or less
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence: 2"-5"
White Plains: Less than 1"
Worcester: 4"-10"

[donsutherland1]

Busted!

More badly than words can describe. For the sickening nightmare:

Albany: 7"-14"; Actual: 0.8"
Boston: 2"-5"; Actual: 1.1"
Burlington: 10"-18"; Actual: 9.3"
Danbury: 1"-2"; Actual: Trace
Hartford: 3"-6"; Actual: None
New York City: Less than 1"; Actual: None
Newark: Less than 1"; Actual: None
Philadelphia: Coating or less; Actual: None
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"; Actual: Trace
Providence: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.6"
White Plains: Less than 1"; Actual: None
Worcester: 4"-10"[/quote]

[vbhoutex]

What was the cause of the bust? Were the models that far off due to bad data or what changed to cause the bust?

[donsutherland1]

The models all trended north very rapidly. Apparently, there was far less blocking (not that there was supposed to be too much) than what had been implied in earlier model guidance. Also, the supply of cold air was even more limited than seemed apparent. The MM5 caught on earliest but its performance had been quite poor this winter. Overall, a horrific performance beyond compare.

I'm still awaiting the Worcester figure.

[stormraiser]

I luckily skidded by with 5 inches. The cold air came in early enough to give us some snow, but not soon enough for Albany, 45 min to our SW.