Tropical Cyclone Olaf (19P)

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B7 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/1400 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 177.5W AT 131200 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW-MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 6 HOURS. CDO DEVELOPING FURTHER AND INCREASING. CONVECTIVE TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL. SPIRAL BANDING TRYING TO WRAP AROUND CDO. A BANDING EYE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS MET=3.0, PT=2.5: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW AND STEERING OVER THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 132030 UTC.

[senorpepr]

GALE WARNING 043 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/1750 UTC 2005 UTC.

Correction..

Tropical Cyclone OLAF centre [995 hPa] was located near 9 decimal 2
South 177 decimal 5 West at 131500 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 9.2S 177.5W at 131500 UTC.

Cyclone expected to move towards the east at about 05 knots before
turning east-southeast and accelerating gradually. Cyclone
intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to centre increasing to 45
knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Expect winds above 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre
in the northeast semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre
elsewhere.

Forecast position near 9.4S 176.4W at 140300 UTC.
and near 10.7S 174.6W at 141500 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every
three hours to RSMC Nadi. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 041.

[*StOrmsPr*]

Now a cane!

Hurricane Warning 048 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0122 UTC 2005 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone OLAF [975 hPa] centre was located near 9 decimal 4 South 178
decimal 1 West at 140000 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 9.4S 178.1W at 140000 UTC.
Cyclone is near stationary but expected to move towards the east in the next 24
hours.

Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre increasing to 85 knots in
the next 12 to 24 hours.

Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre in the northeast
semicircle and within 90 nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 9.6S 177.2W at 141200 UTC.
and near 10.7S 175.4W at 150000 UTC.

All vessels within within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
sendreports every three hours. VOS reperting ships use normal channels. Other
vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 045.

[Aslkahuna]

From the appearance of the eye in satellite imagery, we are probably looking at an80-90 kt (one minute) storm right now.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0228 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 178.1W AT
140000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON 132033 UTC SSMI IMAGE AND GOES9
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE NEAR STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN NEXT 24 HOURS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN
90 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IRREGULAR EYE IN RECENT EIR IMAGES. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN YIELDS DT=5.0. MET=4.5, FT BASED ON
PT=4.0: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR IS LOW, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. STEERING FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST AS WESTERLY STEERING INCREASES IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION
AROUND NANCY. SOME MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES WITH OLAF WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 9.6S 177.2W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 10.7S 175.4W MOV SE 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 12.6S 173.3W MOV SE 14KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 14.4S 171.1W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140830 UTC.


If the Big Bang theory would to apply to cyclones, then the twins Nancy and Olaf could be great examples. Olaf has intensified fiercely in the last 24 hours, mainly in the last 6, and continues intensificaton is expected.

[depotoo]

i'm curious - is this typical for this time of year there?

[Aslkahuna]

It's the middle of Tropical Cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere (South Indian Ocean and South Pacific) averages 28 cyclones/year. February is equivalent to August in the Northern Hemisphere.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

Will Nancy and Olaf do the Fujiwara?

[senorpepr]

Officially up to 100 mph.

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B10 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0814 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 177.7W AT
140600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES
OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OLAF, FOLLOWING NANCY'S FOOTSTEPS, HAS ALSO UNDERGONE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. PRESENCE OF AN IRREGULAR WHITE EYE
SURROUNDED IN A COLD MEDIUM GRAY SHADE RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.5,
MET=PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. STEERING
FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS WESTERLY
STEERING INCREASES IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION AROUND NANCY. SOME
MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF
WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 9.9S 176.8W MOV SE 05KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 11.2S 175.5W MOV SE 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 12.8S 173.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 14.5S 171.8W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
141430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Will Nancy and Olaf do the Fujiwara?

"GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE NORTHWEST".
- FIJI METEOLOGICAL SERVICE

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B11 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1425 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 176.9W AT
141200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100
KNOTS INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OLAF, IN TANDEM WITH NANCY, HAS UNDERGONE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS, AND HAS ALSO COMMENCED AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED IN RECENT EIR IMAGES,
WITH A LG SHADE SURROUNDED BY CMG. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS DT=6.5,
MET=PAT=6.0. FT BASED ON MET: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PEAK INTENSITY. WEAK EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS PRESENT, BUT MAY DECREASE AS OLAF MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AS NORTHWEST
STEERING DOMINATES. SOME MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.


FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 10.6S 175.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 12.3S 174.3W MOV SE 12KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 14.1S 172.3W MOV SE 14KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 16.0S 170.0W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
142030 UTC.



Well, according to Fiji now Olaf and Nancy have the same intensity.

[P.K.]

Wouldn't want to be in Western Samoa given the latest forecast path.

[senorpepr]

Wow.... 160 mph (one-min avg)

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B13 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0139 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [930HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 175.0W
AT 150000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS INCREASING TO
125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OLAF HAS PERSISTED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE EYE
REMAINS DEFINED IN RECENT EIR IMAGES, WITH A LG SHADE SURROUNDED BY
CMG. DVORAK ASSESSMENT GIVES DT=PAT=6.5 AND MET=6.0. FT BASED ON DT:
T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS. OLAF LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EQUATORIAL NORTHWESTERLIES ARE STEERING THE
CYCLONE SOUTHEAST NOW AND IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM IN THE
OUTLOOK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME MODELS
FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF WEAKENING
AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 12.2S 173.9W MOV SE 10KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 13.8S 172.2W MOV SE 10KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 170.5W MOV SE 10KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 17.7S 168.6W MOV SE 15KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150830 UTC.

[HurricaneBill]

Is Olaf now a Category 5?

[senorpepr]

yup yup yup

[HurricaneBill]

That makes Cyclone Olaf the first Category 5 storm of 2005!

Congratulations Cyclone Olaf!

You get a gold star!

[cycloneye]

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IN FORCE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS
LOCATED AT 12.0 SOUTH 174.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 11 PM SST MONDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...BUT SEEMED TO STALLED IN THE PAST HALF
HOUR...IF OLAF MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SPEED...IT WILL BE
NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION
ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL
GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 60 FT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.


...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM TUESDAY.


American Samoa prepares for a big hit.I pray to all the people there.

[cycloneye]

It has a tiny eye but powerful.Now very close to American Samoa and Pago Pago.

[Derecho]

Is Olaf now a Category 5?

Nope. TC Faq indicates you can sorta convert 10-min average winds to 1-min average by multiplying by 12%, but that gives 134.4 kts, not a Category 5.

[rsvh2000]

Hello -

I got a call from a friend this morning who wanted me to check out with you experts on what she heard on a national radio broadcast this morning. There was a quick clip stating that two hurricanes in the South Pacific were expected to "merge" forming a superstorm that will hit Australia with tremendous force. Now, I have to say that i am a 100% amateur, but I am very interedsted in weather. It seems that I recall from a post or two back in the summer that this is simply not how it works. From reading this thread i see nothing that indicates this is what is happening. Could anyone help clarify this ? If it is untrue I find it disturbing that the media (I think this was ABC radio) is portraying this to be the case.

Thanks !