Worldwide Tropical Update: 15 February 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 15 February 2005 at 0000Z.

Tropical Depression Noname (14R/92S) (15/0000Z)
Position: 21.9S 55.8E (160 mi SW of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: SW at 5 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1001 mb / 29.56"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/1.5

14R still remains with little change forecast over the next few days.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olaf (08F/19P) (15/0000Z)
Position: 10.8S 175.0W (290 mi NW of Apia, Samoa)
Movement: SE at 12 mph
Winds: 160 mph
Pressure: 930 mb / 27.46"
Dvorak Est: T6.5/6.5

Olaf has continued to explosively undergo cycloegenesis. Expect some limited further intensification as Olaf enters an area of nearly zero shear, but some weakening will happen within the next few days as Olaf catches up with Nancy and produces a Fujiwara effect.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nancy (09F/18P) (15/0000Z)
Position: 16.7S 159.8W (675 W of Tahiti, French Polynesia)
Movement: SE at 17 mph
Winds: 145 mph
Pressure: 940 mb / 27.76"
Dvorak Est: T5.0/6.0

Nancy is showing some slight weakening as the eye becomes less sharp. Good outflow aloft will keep a strong cyclone, but a shortwave trough coupled with interaction with Olaf will slightly weaken it. In addition, it’s close proximity to Olaf will help produce a minor Fujiwara effect over the next few days.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[MWatkins]

Olaf has continued to explosively undergo cycloegenesis. Expect some limited further intensification as Olaf enters an area of nearly zero shear, but some weakening will happen within the next few days as Olaf catches up with Nancy and produces a Fujiwara effect.

If anyone wants to know what happens to systems when they get too close together...keep an eye on these two systems in the next few days.

Man...160 MPH. Must be energy from another demension...or maybe that only happens in the Atlantic.

MW

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 15 February 2005 at 1800Z.

Tropical Depression Noname (14R/92S) (15/1800Z)
Position: 22.0S 53.4E (295 mi SW of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: WNW at 5 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/2.0

14R still remains with little change forecast over the next few days.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olaf (08F/19P) (15/1800Z)
Position: 12.0S 173.3W (155 mi NW of Apia, Samoa)
Movement: E at 9 mph
Winds: 160 mph
Pressure: 930 mb / 27.46"
Dvorak Est: T7.0/7.0

Olaf, after going through an eye-wall replacement cycle, has reintensified. Strong divergence aloft persists. With almost no shear, expect further deepening over the next day.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nancy (09F/18P) (15/1800Z)
Position: 20.5S 158.5W (615 WSW of Tahiti, French Polynesia)
Movement: S at 16 mph
Winds: 110 mph
Pressure: 950 mb / 28.05"
Dvorak Est: T3.5/4.0

Shear continues to tear at Nancy while outflow is decreasing. Expect continued weakening over the next few days.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com