FIRST CALL ON PREZ DAY III

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I have alot of confidence in this forecast, however if there is one thing I could change (I'm not making another map...lol)... I'd bring the 4-8" swath and push it a bit further south... ALso I think 6" will generally be the highest amounts in most areas, howerv lolipops will develop as they always do and someone could get up to 8" but thats it no more... Also I think Philly will be in the dark blue band as I see them getting more than two inches...



Impacts...

Washington: Maybe 1" if all goes right
Baltimore: 2" before sleet
Philly: Around 3" could see some sleet
Allentown: 4-5" All snow
NYC: Around 4" All snow
Hartford: 3-4" All snow
Boston: Around 3" All snow

Winners: Eastern PA and Central NJ
Losers: South of PA... Sleet To Drizzle End

[BlizzzardMan]

Wow, our local forecast is going to have to drastically change for that to happen. I hope you're right though. Better than all rain like they are forecasting here right now anyway, and we've had MORE than enough rain for quite a while now!!!

[krysof]

it's possible, but its all supposed to change to rain until you reach new england. 4 inches in NYC may occur before it changes to rain on Monday.

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

It will not warm up that fast...

a) the 0 line is going to be as far south as S. Carolina 36 hours before the storm it is highly unlikely that line will march that far north that fast in 36 hours

b) the storm cannot go staright into a high as the GFS forecasted in it's earlier runs, the lates runs 12z and 18z support the above forecast

It is possible for this whole thing to end as drizzle in most places as far north as half way through PA but no further north... Even if thats the case the storm will already be through and I stand by the accumulations amts laid out above

[vbhoutex]

Krysof, radar indicated snow over most of NJ today. Did you get any? BTW, what part of NJ do you live in?

[Stephanie]

Well, I'm in the southern part of New Jersey and I drove home from Atlantic City through a few snow squalls.

[weathermom]

I am in northwestern bergen county and we just had a mini blizzard. Almost an inch of snow in about 30 minutes. Checked the radar and it is just one little dot sitting above us. It appears to be shrinking out now. Wish it could have lasted. Yesterday it was just flurries off and on.

[krysof]

there were two bursts of snow, the second one looked like a blizzard with strong winds, but it lasted only for a few minutes

[WXBUFFJIM]

I'll admit models have been trending colder and snow lasting longer. Supposing this occurs, it maybe all snow north and west of DC, Baltimore, and Philly and snow changing to mixed precip south and east of those cities Sunday night into Monday. Thus amounts maybe closer to 4-8 inches in those place, less se more nw.

The interesting thing about this storm maybe snow that comes in bands. Those bands may have enhanced totals with possibly up to 2 inches per hour at times in those particular bands. Should that occur, that 4-8" will likely be reached in a short period of time even if precip changes over to mixed by Monday. So will have to see how this evolves, but I'm buying more into the colder solution as arctic high pressure to our north keeps the colder air in place longer, that's critical for this storm. But I suspect there will be winter storm watches neccessary for areas including the Washington, Baltimore area, Philadelphia point north and west where some of the heavier totals maybe realized. Then New England away from the coast could see the heaviest totals of all with some places especially in the Hudson Valley experiencing possibly seeing 8-12" of snow.

However a clearer depiction of this storm will be upcoming later as a more exact track and timing becomes realized.

Jim

[Tri-State_1925]

The NWS's "special weather statement" just ran by...saying that interior NE should be getting the most snow while at the coast and southeast NE rain and mixed precip will keep totals lower. They won't give snow amounts yet..."too early to say..."

[vbhoutex]

there were two bursts of snow, the second one looked like a blizzard with strong winds, but it lasted only for a few minutes

But I thought there wasn't going to be any more snow this month!!! What happened?

[krysof]

technically there will be snow falling, but it will change to rain for most of the northern mid-atlantic and southern new england so I'm not getting my hopes up on this storm, its not worth it.

[Jrodd312]

technically there will be snow falling, but it will change to rain for most of the northern mid-atlantic and southern new england so I'm not getting my hopes up on this storm, its not worth it.

New models say that the cold air will stick here for a longer period than last time forecasted. Read the "Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Potential" topic.

[vbhoutex]

technically there will be snow falling, but it will change to rain for most of the northern mid-atlantic and southern new england so I'm not getting my hopes up on this storm, its not worth it.

What do you mean by technically? If snow is falling, then snow is falling.

I know about not getting hopes up for any snow storm!!!! Living in the south does that to you.

[vbhoutex]

Ok, here is the map for expected snow amounts for this weekend's early next weeks storm. This is taken from one of your posted links to Accuweather Krysof.



Are you saying that Accuweather is incorrect in their amounts? Or what are you saying? Sure looks like you are "technically" going to get snow to me and it is still February. If you read the accompanying text with the maps and stories on the link you posted it sure doesn't sound like it is going to stay warm and rain to me. Where is your information coming from?

[Lowpressure]

LWX mentioning the possibility of issuing winter storm advisories Saturday. I would call that snow, technical or not.

[krysof]

I mean the snow will accumulate, but quickly be gone because of the rain

[whiteoutwx1796]

The high will damn enough cold for enough time, say when it retreats and temps warm up, pcp would be subsiding, so if anything maybe and maybe drizzle and or sprinkles-- rain will really not affect the depth of snow for many locales other then eastern LI and the cape. Cpk(NYC) will be safe points southwest and northeast as well.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It seems as though problems will occur regardless Monday morning from DC up to New York and eventually into Boston as Monday continues to roll on. Definitely take it slowly.