Could another Superstorm happen in the next few weeks??

[Planetsnow]

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days) - By Larry Cosgrove

You know, it has been a while since we have seen a for-real monster winter storm. Yes, we have had local and regional episodes this season, like the January 22 almost-blizzard (Great Lakes and Northeast). But the last real blockbuster event for snow and ice was President's Day 2003, and you have to go back to January 7-8 1996 for a true crippling snowstorm. Using caution, I will say that about 40 to 50 percent of the contiguous U.S. (the southern and eastern tier of states, including Appalachia and the lower Great Lakes) has a chance at witnessing the formation and evolution of a system that could equal the impact of the March 1962 and February 1978 Nor'easters.

I have seen correspondence from some readers (after having viewed the past two runs of the ECMWF scheme, which, with the 0z Feb 22 GGEM scheme, is favored for this discussion) that suggested a storm with supreme potential, like the March 1993 blizzard or the Great Midwest White Hurricane of January 25-26 1978. My advice: just because the risk of a strong system appears growing does not mean that logic should be thrown out the window! For one thing, generational (20+ years) storms are rare, and it takes extraordinary synoptic events, timing, and sometimes unforeseen developments for a multidimensional tempest to occur. Want an example? "Superstorm 1993" was associated with cyclogenesis in the central Gulf of Mexico triggered by the presence of a cAk vortex over the Deep South in mid-March! Seeing an Arctic motherlode that far south is unusual during the heart of winter, and a 530dcm core low at 500MB in LA with tropical values to the immediate right of the gyre is astounding. Same basic scenario happened with the record-breaking 1978 Midwest system, which wrapped warm air directly against bitter cold readings and spread blizzard conditions from NE KS and MO into MI and OH...simultaneously! And besides, we know that many of the equations, including the praised European outlook, have been as accurate as a broken clock at various points during the past three months.

If I follow the Canadian and European versions at 0z Feb 22, I see an impulse that travels out of the Desert Southwest (the main body of the low now smashing into CA, actually), moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico, then curls up the Atlantic coastline or just offshore first as a shortwave, then growing into a vertical (longwave) cyclone early next week. I am convinced that even the most accurate NWP outlooks are missing some important points with this feature. For one, note the classic PNA+/-NAO ridge linking going on; teleconnections on this event ALWAYS favor bitter cold across the Midwest, Dixie, and East Coast with a frontal structure that runs from FL along the western edge of the Gulf Stream. The cAk vortex usually ends up over Lower MI and ONT, bombogenesis well east of the GA coast tracks northward into eastern New England, with the energy phasing with the motherlode. So IF this scenario verifies (keep in mind that the upcoming jet stream configuration, as stated in previous discussions, is very favorable for a Miller "A" cyclone), extensive strong winds and heavy (often frozen/dendritic) precipitation may occur from the Deep South through Appalachia, the Eastern Seaboard, lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. I suspect that the numerical models are too warm in regard to the vertical thermal structure of this system (while the 0z Feb 22 GFS panels show no important surface pressure falls, the upper air alignment, showing a deep stab of vorticity and cold air into the Carolinas at 180 hours, makes sense), and as can be seen from the changes with overall storm track from the previous edition of WEATHERAmerica, timing this huge system will be an issue. But we have a shot at the record books coming up, with late season cold, lake-effect snows, severe thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast, and huge snowfall output in the northern quadrants of this feature.

The waiting, as they say, is the hardest part....

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Larry, with all due respect it aint going to happen in the southeast this season ,trust me it aint going to snow of any significant accumulation below the Mason-Dixon line for the rest of the winter...actually temps will remain somewhere around normal with slightly above rainfall through April...Then the heat is coming for the Summer months...and a very mild to possible warm winter for the east next year...too much pooling of cold water off Florida............JSB

[Planetsnow]

Never say never!!!!! You may be shocked by what may happen in the next few weeks. With the weather, you can never say never!

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Larry is just like Joe Bastardi....It's coming,It's coming, well guess what it's only a month until Spring,and this winter has been a piece of cake------------------JSB

[Planetsnow]

Well,

I'm not Larry, just posting his articles. And as you know, there have been many winters with nothing to talk about until late Feb and March roll around. This time of year can be very volatile so stop being so pessimistic.