latest JMA is way far east with storm

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EXTONPA
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latest JMA is way far east with storm

#1 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:43 pm

heaviest precip does not make it west of eastern PA
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Jrodd312
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Re: latest JMA is way far east with storm

#2 Postby Jrodd312 » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:45 pm

EXTONPA wrote:heaviest precip does not make it west of eastern PA
What does that mean? Who gets the heavy snows then? Philly?
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EXTONPA
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#3 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:45 pm

check out latest JMA, Canadian and ECMFW models....all show storm staying offshore, not even really hugging coast.
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#4 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:48 pm

would mean Philly, NY and Boston get heaviest snow.
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krysof

#5 Postby krysof » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:48 pm

what does that mean?
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krysof

#6 Postby krysof » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:49 pm

where can I see these models?
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EXTONPA
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#7 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:52 pm

my hunch is heaviest snow will fall a little further west: Axis including Reading PA, Western Mass, VT and through NH probably sees 12+; big cities will be close, but mixing may cut down amounts; if JMA and ECMFW are indeed right on, then axis would shift east to include big cities
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EXTONPA
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#8 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:53 pm

i get them at accuweather, but through the prosite, so you need a subscription; I'm sure there are some free sites out there, but not sure where to find them
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krysof

#9 Postby krysof » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:54 pm

so 12+ snowfalls could include cities like Boston and NYC.
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EXTONPA
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#10 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:56 pm

I think 50/50 chance right now regarding big cities
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krysof

#11 Postby krysof » Sat Feb 26, 2005 4:57 pm

well there may be a good chance if the models trend a little further east, which they may
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EXTONPA
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#12 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:00 pm

seems to be a war between the US model and the international models. If the international models win then big cities get blasted
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DS
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#13 Postby DS » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:14 pm

Wow, the 18Z GFS has a monster snowstorm in western and west central NC...Also, this model keeps the big cities in a blizzard, perfect noreaster. However as EXTONPA pointed out, the general consensus is no phasing with one low avoiding much of the northeast. Very interesting day or two ahead...


NC snowstorm...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_042m.gif

Big cities...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_054m.gif
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EXTONPA
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#14 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:16 pm

latest GFS has coastal storm even further east and really cranks it up!!!

Models are all converging on this solution!! I love it
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#15 Postby RestonVA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:18 pm

so what does all this, especially the gfs that you just alluded to, mean for the northern virginia area, west of DC?
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#16 Postby Jrodd312 » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:18 pm

EXTONPA wrote:latest GFS has coastal storm even further east and really cranks it up!!!

Models are all converging on this solution!! I love it
Is this good for like philly and ny?
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#17 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:18 pm

I'm not sure. Hopefully it means lots of snow
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DS
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#18 Postby DS » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:19 pm

One quick observation from here in Chapel Hill, NC. The current dew point is around 20 F. The lowest model guidance I could find had a dew point of 28 to 32 F printed out for this time. This might be important later on...
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krysof

#19 Postby krysof » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:23 pm

weather channel might begin to change their minds after they see the newest models
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#20 Postby EXTONPA » Sat Feb 26, 2005 5:25 pm

Holy smokes! Latest NOGAPS also showing huge storm riding up the coast, with what appears to be big time snows for I95 corridor
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