AO, NAO, and PNA Running Averages to All Be Negative!

Winter Weather Discussion

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snow_wizzard
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AO, NAO, and PNA Running Averages to All Be Negative!

#1 Postby snow_wizzard » Tue Mar 15, 2005 12:40 pm

If anyone needs convincing that we are entering a new climate regime, consider this amazing fact! For the first time since 1972, the 5 year running averages for the AO, NAO, and PNA will all be in negative territory! :eek:

What does this all mean you may ask? Historically speaking this should mean colder winters for much of the country...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST!
It is very interesting to note that the west has had very mild winters overall since all three indices went positive in the mid 1970s. Since then the running average for the three have gone negative at times, but never all three at the same time. During the 1945 - 1972 period the average for all of them was constantly negative. During that time the west had many very cold winters and the snowfall was drastically higher in some areas. Past records indicate that the Puget Sound region of Washington State had three times as much snow before 1975 than it currently receives.

This could have implications for global warming, or the lack thereof. An atmospheric research scientist from NOAA told me that computer models have indicated that global warming should result in an increasingly positive AO. The numbers for the AO this winter have been anything but positive! :D
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R-Dub
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#2 Postby R-Dub » Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:05 pm

I like what I hear Snow-Wizzard 8-)
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