Re Post of MWA Spring Outlook, Same Forecast!

[Gothpunk-IL-WX]

Summary of weather Patterns etc...

Ahh, Spring is here a little early this year in the midwest and the east, at least so it seems for now. Though the winter doesn't "offically end till March 20th, there "could" still be a surprise winter weather event or two however, the chances are rapidly becoming null. Spring Forecasting for me always seems a little easier especially when you compare my winter weather outlook that I posted late last year that turned out to be a "Big Failure" Mainly because there was alot of -removed- and a surprise turn of the weather pattern that wasn't expected. The Spring of 2005 will start on a cold to cool note for some, and unseasonably warm for others. This is mainly thanks to the back and forth weather pattern that we have had so far this year. The Spring of 2005 could be a spring to remember for some, and a waste of time being even alive for other weathernuts. The main issues will involve heavy rains in the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys where constant storm systems will keep battering the region. All in all the eastern third of the nation is in store for a wet to very wet spring with the only exception being the southeast coast where a southern ridge may try to build back in. This has pretty much been the case for this region over much of the winter. The west will contiune to experience drought and very dry weather especially over the Rocky Mountains and the extreme northwestern Great Plains.

Temperatures will also reflect on what the weather patterns and jet streams will be like. In otherwords the eastern two thirds of the country can expect to see above average temperatures being ahead and below the southern jet, which will sharply curve it's way from the southwest through the central and eastern midwest and through the Great Lakes into southern Canada. The exception being the northeast and the southeastern coast due to alot of clouds, but they will be non-precipating clouds for the most part. The northeast may still be going through a moderately negative NAO (North Atlantic Osolation) which will cause a trough to continue across the New England area, delaying spring a month or so. The west will have a average start, but it should get slightly colder with constant clouds and a possible deeping trough to make up for the ridge in the central states. The west should warm up with the arrival of the month of May, and the end of the west coast rainy season. Now for the other issue; Severe Thunderstorms.

Severe Weather Season could and probably will get an early start this year, thanks to the southern jet and the polar jet getting close to together from time to time, often more times then not. This and a wide open Gulf of Mexico (thanks to the southern ridge in the southeastern states) along with cool shots from the north trying to push south from Canada will combine to cause some very nasty severe thunderstorms. The geatest threat for the most severe thunderstorms will be from Oklahoma through the Ozarks, through the upper Ohio River Valley and the nearby Mississipi River Valley regions. This means cities like Oklahoma City, Springfield, MO, St. Louis, MO, Urbana, IL, and Dayton, OH will be the most hardest hit. Outbreaks of Tornadoes, Damaging Wind and Hail will be likely at times. A near record tornado outbreak is possible especially between late April and late May. This is due to being directly ahead of the clash of warm and cool air and being on the warm, moist side of the clash, which will fuel storms and force them eastward. The southeast could also get some severe weather due to some potent short waves and strong fronts with lots of lift and instablity, but nowhere near the severity of the midwest mostly a gusty wind and heavy rain threat here.

For the Weather maps go here, and Don't forget to Join if you wish. To join go to the Join Now Button located on the Top left Margin. You Do not have to join to see the maps. scroll down the page to find the maps.

http://groups.msn.com/MidwesternWeather ... tlook.msnw