Wedge is still holding!

[jeff and shirens weather]

So far nothing9ng has materialized here and with the wedge in place and cloudy skies I wonder if our area will see the potential for tornadic thunderstorms. Temperatures are holding in the low 50s in the western and northern upstate and in the upper 50s around the Greenwood areas. Most of Alabama, Georgia; and the panhandle of Florida are under tornado watches where temperatures range from near 70 to near the upper 70s with plenty of sunshine. Those areas are expected to blow up with severe thunderstorms and then move towards northeast Georgia, foothills; and piedmont locations. The question still remains to me is there going to be enough instability for these thunderstorms when they move into northeast Georgia and south Carolina when they hit the cooler air later this afternoon and evening. Could this put a cap on the thunderstorms? This remains to be seen. There could also be a flash flooding problem.

[kamqercam]

Its been very cloudy all day today in Eastern North Carolina. Temps remain in the upper 50's. I don't know what to expect for tonight. If lastnight was any indicator, I'm not going to drop my gaurd just yet.

[Skywatch_NC]

Currently 57F and overcast here in Raleigh.


Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 2:30 PM EST on March 27, 2005

... Risk of severe thunderstorms tonight across central North
Carolina...

... Severe storms also possible Monday...

A strong low pressure system over the deep south will move
northeast into the region through Monday. The air over central North
Carolina will become increasingly unstable tonight as a warm
front lifts north into the state. At the same time... winds aloft will
increase in strength. These parameters will create conditions
favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms over central
North Carolina tonight.

While the severe weather threat includes all of central North
Carolina... the threat appears to be greatest over the southern
counties... roughly along and south of a line from Lexington to
Lillington to Goldsboro. The primary threat from the severe storms
will be damaging wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph. With a warm front
expected to be in our vicinity... there is also an increased risk of
isolated tornadoes.

It appears that the severe weather risk will be greatest
tonight... mainly between 7 PM tonight and 4 am Monday morning.
County emergency managers and storm spotter networks need to keep
informed of the latest statements and forecast throughout the day
and tonight.

After a lull in activity Monday morning... the risk of severe storms
may return Monday afternoon as an upper level weather system moves
across the area. This weather system contains a pocket of cold air
aloft. Thus... any storms that occur Monday will have the potential
to produce hail... with large damaging hail possible with stronger
storms

Be sure to stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for
further details or updates today through Monday.

[Stormsfury]

Heavy rains and elevated thunderstorm activity in lower South Carolina has put a hamper on severe potential this afternoon, but as the upper/SFC low pull off to the northeast, eventually with the very strong southerly flow (already occurred here with a break in the convection). The SE/southerly flow earlier produced strong gusty winds of 20-30 MPH after the earlier round broke (possibly in part due to a gravity wave). As this next area of rain entered, the winds immediately subsided.

I'm not exactly sure if the wedge will retreat if continued convection continues to ride over the cold air dammed regions but still within, elevated convection and very heavy rains (enhanced with some isentropic lifting) will continue to be a threat. Unfortunately, right along the triple point, as the upper/sfc low begin to move and join forces so to speak is when the threat for tornadoes increases, and even worse, at night ...

SF