000
FXUS62 KTBW 280222 CCA
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
920 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF HAS BEEN
ON A WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING. TWO OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN THIS
WEAKENING AND LACK OF NEW SIGNIF CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
APPEARS RELATED TO THE BEST DYNAMICS BEING TO OUR N...AND OVERALL
MOISTURE/STABILITY OF OUR EVENING AIRMASS AS PER 00Z SOUNDING. IN
PARTICULAR...TWO DRY LAYERS (850-750MB AND 700-600 MB) AND A SIGNIF
INVERSION AT 850MB SHOULD BE LIMITING FACTORS WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTION TONIGHT. ALTHO THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL DIMINISH WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MID-UPR TROF AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
W...GENERAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS SO FAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE BEEN RATHER LIMITED. IN ANY EVENT...WON'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT TSTMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...AND IF CURRENT OR
NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS...GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND FIELDS AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE
APPROACHING OUR FA FROM OFF THE GULF...AND WILL AFFECT OUR FA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS SFC TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. CURRENT
POPS OF 70 NORTH AND 50 SOUTH UP UNTIL 6Z...SHIFTING TO 50 NORTH AND
70 SOUTH AFTER 6Z...LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OF
THESE SHOWERS. TEMPS ATTM ARE ON TRACK...AND EXPECTING LOWS FROM THE
LOW 60S NORTH (BEHIND THE TROF) TO UPR 60S TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOC WITH THE TROF PRODUCING RATHER
GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE TROF.
SEAS ARE BUILDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE WIND. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER NEAR TSTMS WITH THE TROF PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. SCA ARE POSTED
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ON TAMPA BAY.
&&
