More specifically and very importantly, that was a WEAK El Nino. My research based on the data from 1950 though 2004 tells me that whereas moderate to strong El Nino years have averaged only 8 storms, WEAK El Nino's have actually averaged near the longterm average for ALL years of 10 storms. My point is that WEAK El Nino years such as 1969 do not average out to have lower than average number of storms. Therefore, I believe it is important to note the intensity of the El Nino.
Regarding moderate to strong El Nino's, the data suggests to me that there have been six of them during the heart of the hurricane season since 1950 and only one of those 6 (17%) with 10 or more storms:
1965: 6 storms
1972: 7 storms
1982: 6 storms
1987: 7 storms
1997: 8 storms
2002: 12 storms
In sharp contrast, out of 11 weak El Nino heart of hurricane seasons, there have been 5 (45%) with 10 or more storms and 3 (27%) with 15+ storms.
My own analysis tells me that the chance for a moderate to strong El Nino this season is quite small whereas the chance for a weak El Nino is a good bit higher. I believe that either a neutral or weak El Nino is heavily favored.
