Adrian was RIPed after Crossing Central America

[gatorcane]

Not a chance...mountainous terrain destroyed it...it's dead.....RIP!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its been dead for over 12 hours. One thing about these kind of systems is they are compact in can't live with any unfavable changes. It was so close!!!

[Josephine96]

So much for the 1st Atlantic system lol

[Aquawind]

Good Deal.. That is not an area we want to see development at all as a landfall would be imminent. I can wait.

Paul

[Scorpion]

I think our first named storm will form in mid to late July.

[Brett Adair]

LOL....well I think I pretty much ruled that before this actually occured Boca_Chris. I knew that thing couldn't take on those mountains. Actually....it was decaying before it ever made landfall as a tropical storm as shear was also increasing on the southern flank of the outflow.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It was pretty obvious that this little system didn't have a chance but why do some of these models not take into consideration the terrain and shear. Like the GFDL had it as a Hurricane near Bahamas in a couple of days and it was obvious it ain't happening. Where is the information being put into these models and if they can't get the info. why post such dumb things.

[senorpepr]

It was pretty obvious that this little system didn't have a chance but why do some of these models not take into consideration the terrain and shear. Like the GFDL had it as a Hurricane near Bahamas in a couple of days and it was obvious it ain't happening. Where is the information being put into these models and if they can't get the info. why post such dumb things.

Some models account for terrain, some don't. Unfortunately, many people forget about terrain at times and focus on the model output too heavily.

Additionally, those models who do account for terrain are only accurate if the track verifies. For example, say this given model forecasts the system to cross over Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Elevation at this point is roughly 2,300ft. The model will calculate the given frictional effects against 2,300ft terrain and then regenerate the cyclone once over water.

Now, say the track was off and the system made landfall near El Salvador where the elevation is roughly 7,200ft. The difference between the actual frictional effects and the forecast effects are based off of a differential elevation of nearly 5,000ft -- a huge difference. This would greatly affect the speed of decay and the potential/speed of redevelopment.

[TropicalWXMA]

Hmmm. Good point, elevation and that type of stuff can make a huge diference in whether the storm survives or not. Also, not all of the modles are right and most of the time, they don't predict and factor in all of the elevations that the storm will be encountering.

[vbhoutex]

Mike, well stated.

To give a prime example of the differences. If you watch any TC cross Hispaniola-mountains up to 10,000 feet or so-most will be severely decimated if not destroyed by that transit, but if you run the same TC across Eastern Cuba or for that matter Puerto Rico, which also have some "mountains", the effect will be much less due to the fact that the mountains at these locations are hills compared to what is in Hispaniola.

Can any of the pro mets tell us which of the models do take terrrain into account?

[Scorpion]

Pretty odd that Jeanne survived Hispaniola and was a minimal hurricane at landfall.

[senorpepr]

Pretty odd that Jeanne survived Hispaniola and was a minimal hurricane at landfall.

Well, A) it didn't cross Hispaniola, which would have weakened the storm tremendously, but rather a brushing, and B) even after the brushing, the system remained of tropical depression/storm strength for a few days (which is a very long time in the tropical world, especially if you've had the express pleasure of waiting minute by minute for the next recon report or NHC advisory).

[HurricaneBill]

Pretty odd that Jeanne survived Hispaniola and was a minimal hurricane at landfall.

Jeanne barely survived Hispaniola. After emerging from Haiti, she was barely a depression and the low level circulation broke away from the mid level circulation.

What saved Jeanne was a new low level circulation forming in the large band of convection east of the center.