Hurricanes not so rare in NE Florida???

[sponger]

We all know NE FL has been spared the last hundred years. If you look back the previous 300 years, mother nature was not so kind.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/

What suprised me more was that there are several strikes that approached on a Dora like track, which I thought was an anomaly.

Question for all mets, was Dora's due west track caused by an unusually far North Bermuda High, and how often does that occur? All coments welcome!

[StormChasr]

They are extremely rare. These storms are hard to document, as much of the information is annecdoal, as opposed to being scientific. With regard to the Dora track, if you look at Charley's path, it is extremely similar--so the conditions at the time must have been somewhat similar. I am not a met, but it seems as if the track was similar, the conditions must have been at least somewhat the same.

[boca]

Matbe their was a strong high pressure over the mid Atlantic at the same time Dora was being pushed West towards St Augustine.

[sponger]

One other highlight of the research shows last year was not as bad as could be. According to the site

.

Note: 1837 was one of the most active years on record in the North Atlantic basin and “Racer’s Storm” of 8-9 October is not listed as it moved inland through central Georgia. If this storm is included six tropical cyclones effected Georgia and northeast Florida that year.

Now thats a nasty season!

[boca]

What's that site?

[sponger]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/

[sponger]

What really impressed me was the authors credentials. Seems they did a detailed job of compiling all recorded information from 1565 to 1900. Here are the authors

Al Sandrik, Senior Forecaster

NOAA, National Weather Service, Southern Region,

NWSFO, Jacksonville, Florida

13701 FANG Dr. Jacksonville, Florida, 32218

Phone: 904-741-4411

FAX: 904-741-0078

E-mail comments to: Al.Sandrik@noaa.gov



Christopher W. Landsea

NOAA/Hurricane Research Division,

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway,

Miami, Florida 33149

Phone: 305-361-4357

E-mail: Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov

[Derecho]

They are extremely rare. These storms are hard to document, as much of the information is annecdoal, as opposed to being scientific.

These storms are very very carefully researched. It's written records. You don't need a WC-130 or an ASOS to be extremely confident a storm occured in a given location at a given time.

They aren't "extremely" rare as it turns out; just soemwhat flukey how rare they've been recently. They're moderately rare compared to FL Peninsula or NC hits.

Also there's new research going back thousands of years that involves direct evidence....sediment studies on the coast, not relying on humans at all...showing N FL and GA have been hit quite a lot.

[EDR1222]

I think it is entirely possible that NE Florida could have been a more frequent target at some point in history. It seems likely that the bermuda high was probably fairly persistent in the same general area in the 20's, 30,'s and 40's where it guided many systems into Southeast Florida. Maybe not every year, but the paths of the storms tell us that it was set up that way much of the time. Through the nineties there seemed to be a general trend for storms to move toward the carolinas or to recurve out to sea. I am sure at some point in history the steering patterns could have been such that the high pressure would be situated a little further to the north and west thus guiding storms into the NE Florida or Georgia area.

I guess luck and timing are also a part of it as well.

[Derek Ortt]

NE FL and GA do get hit mroe frequently than it seems; however, many of those come from Charley-like tracks, across the Peninsula (Josephine, 1996, etc)

[cyclonaut]

Maybe hurricanes were kind of normal during midieval times up there but for the last 100 years or so they have been almost non-exsistent.

Canes approaching from the east thats is.

[LarryWx]

Maybe hurricanes were kind of normal during midieval times up there but for the last 100 years or so they have been almost non-exsistent.

Canes approaching from the east thats is.

In my opinion, this rareness of direct hits from the Atlantic during the 1900's, in combination with the significantly higher activity of the 1800's as well as high storm surge risk, makes this region about as vulnerable as any. My guess though is that while the 1900's were below average in direct hits from the ocean, the 1800's were above average.

[sponger]

It amazes me how little we really understand long term weather patterns. You look at 100 years and think that must must somewhat close to the long term average. but the weather cycles of the planet are likely 20,000-150,000 long (based on ice age cycles) On that time frame, our recorded portion is a fraction of that.

[sponger]

Also there's new research going back thousands of years that involves direct evidence....sediment studies on the coast, not relying on humans at all...showing N FL and GA have been hit quite a lot...

Hi Derecho, any idea where I could find some of that research? I would love to see it! Thanks!

[jdray]

And people look at me funny when I say it is a matter of when and not if.

Dora spared us by slowing down to a Cat 2 before it hit.


It only takes one, and there is a lot of construction that is nowhere near good code here.

[jdray]

NE FL and GA do get hit mroe frequently than it seems; however, many of those come from Charley-like tracks, across the Peninsula (Josephine, 1996, etc)

We doo get backdoored a lot here. Kinda funny to watch the news of all over the state and hardly anything comes out of this area.

Bonnie - tornado spawner here
Charley- waited nervously as it was just far enough south
Frances - too many days of high winds/rain
Jeanne - similar to Frances

[StormChasr]

The "backend" track for NE Florida is very much a reality, and a serious issue---obviously Donna and Charley were the worst "rear enders," but the've been many other storms coming from the West.

Direct Atlantic strikes are still rare in the NE.

[Anonymous]

Jacksonville can be hit in many ways---Backdoor from the gulf, Dora like and there is also a more normal track that could come ashore near st augustine, head NW which would put Jax on the right side and really "rock us like a hurricane"! Similar to David in 1979... Imagine it just a little further west.

[StormChasr]

Extremely unlikely track--the "traditional" hurricane threat for Region 11 is the "back door" coming from a West Coast strike.

[Anonymous]

Extremely unlikely track--the "traditional" hurricane threat for Region 11 is the "back door" coming from a West Coast strike.

How is the backdoor track a "traditional" hurricane track? Sure they come at us from the gulf but no one has to take any precautions when a hurricane comes from that way and Tim Deegan even says we'll watch it but "its on the wrong side". The only way Jacksonville can be hit and cause an evacuation is from the atlantic. I dont consider backdoor canes a hit-just remnants.